Sunday MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle: Value On Draw in Western Conference Clash (Sept. 26)

Sporting KC vs. Seattle Odds

The top spot in Major League Soccer’s Western Conference standings is on the line Sunday when Sporting Kansas City hosts Seattle in a huge matchup.

Sporting KC have kept clean sheets in back-to back home wins to keep a one-point lead atop the West standings entering the weekend.

The Sounders have only scored once in their last three league matches, and are coming off consecutive defeats if you include a loss to Club Leon in the Leagues Cup Final on Wednesday.

Sporting KC won the first meeting between these sides in a 3-1 victory at Seattle in late July. The Sounders will also host the third and final regular-season contest in late October.

Sporting KC Showing Signs of Reversing Fortune

Manager Peter Vermes’ side has put together its first back-to-back wins since Independence Day by starting both games extremely well.

Summer signing Jose Mauri scored his first MLS goal four minutes into 2-0 win over the Chicago Fire, who conceded again to Johnny Russell two minutes later. Then, Sporting KC took a 3-0 lead into halftime of their 4-0 romp past rivals Minnesota United. Daniel Salloi scored his team-leading 13th goal and Russell converted a penalty for his sixth.

After 11 days’ rest, they’ll be looking for a third three-game winning streak overall and a second run of three consecutive home wins when they face Seattle.  Another clean sheet from Sporting KC’s defense would mark the first time it has had three shutouts in a row this season.

Striker Alan Pulido is questionable after missing Sporting KC’s last game with a knee injury.

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Struggling Seattle Facing Difficult Matchup

Manager Brian Schmetzer and his Sounders have absorbed a pair of difficult blows this week.

On the field, Seattle gave back an early second-half lead in a 3-2 loss to Leon that spoiled the club’s first chance of continental silverware. Off it, captain Nicolas Lodeiro had a scope on his right knee, marking his second procedure on the joint. The injury has limited him to seven appearances and three starts.

In some ways, the latter news makes things simpler for Schmetzer, who changed Seattle’s shape to a back three at the beginning of the season. Some observers questioned if Schmetzer might return to a back four with Lodeiro healthy, in order to utilize his playmaking skills.

Aside from Lodeiro, Schmetzer has most of his squad to choose from for Seattle's fifth game in two-and-a-half weeks. Midfielder Nicolas Benezet — used mainly off the bench — is questionable with a hip flexor strain.

Betting Analysis & Pick

After fielding a best possible XI for the loss to Leon, I suspect we’ll see a lot of squad rotation for Seattle, with some of the key stars entering the match after halftime. 

Therefore, the pressure is on Vermes to try and get three points against arguably the league’s best road team.

And it's a tough task. Seattle has actually earned nearly as many points away with their 7-2-2 record (W-L-D) as Sporting KC has gone 7-5-1 on home soil.

Given that pressure, and the reality the Sounders are more comfortable than most absorbing early pressure, I’d back Seattle to win at these +300 odds when fully rested. Since they’re not, I like the draw here given the likely squad rotation and the fact the Sounders’ away form comes in spite of a -1.1 difference in expected goals on the road.

Also, 10 of Seattle’s 11 away trips have been decided by no more than a goal, which means the draw is almost always in play. That makes it pretty easy to back at a price of +290 odds and an implied 25.6% probability.

Pick: Draw (+290)