United States vs. Mexico CONCACAF Nations League Betting Odds, Preview & Picks (Sunday, June 6)

United States vs. Mexico CONCACAF Nations League Betting Odds, Preview & Picks (Sunday, June 6) article feature image
Credit:

Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Pulisic.

  • The United States and Mexico men's national teams renew the biggest rivalry in the Americas on Sunday night in Denver.
  • Both teams were unconvincing in wins over Honduras and Costa Rica on Thursday night, with Mexico requiring penalty kicks to beat the Ticos.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down where he sees betting value in this matchup below.

United States vs. Mexico Odds

USMNT Odds +190
Mexico Odds +154
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+123 / -148)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+ | CBS Network | Univision
Odds updated Saturday evening via DraftKings

The best rivalry in the Western Hemisphere resumes after a nearly two-year hiatus when the United States faces Mexico in the Concacaf Nations League Final on Sunday night.

Both teams are coming off narrow semifinal triumphs. It took Jordan Siebatcheu’s 88th-minute header to lift the Americans to a 1-0 victory over Honduras, while Mexico went to penalty kicks, during which Guillermo Ochoa again got the better of Costa Rica, as he did in a 2019 Gold Cup quarterfinal.

El Tri is on a two-match winning streak against the U.S. Will it continue?

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Americans Unconvincing Against Honduras

If you bet Siebatcheu as first and/or last to score in the Americans’ narrow victory, congratulations to you for knowing more than the rest of us.

The 25-year-old forward who scored 12 times for Young Boys in the Swiss Super League this campaign is a relative unknown to Yanks supporters, having only declared his intention to play internationally for the U.S. earlier this year.

But manager Gregg Berhalter is right to leave no stone unturned in trying to sort out the No. 9 role, which is the biggest question mark in what otherwise has potential to be the most talented front six in U.S. soccer history.

Questions remain in defense despite Thursday’s clean sheet. Honduras matched the U.S. for shots on target despite a wide gulf in possession, and without Josh Sargent’s remarkable goal-line clearance would’ve taken a first-half lead.

Had the Americans conceded and failed to win in regulation, it would’ve marked just the second time ever the U.S. fell short of victory against Honduras on home soil in a sanctioned competition.

A squad as talented as Mexico’s won’t be as forgiving to those missteps.

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Mexico in Need of Goalscoring

After going unbeaten while scoring eight goals over four friendlies last fall, Mexico has struggled to rediscover their offensive form this spring.

The most obvious reason is the scary skull injury suffered by Wolves’ Raul Jimenez last November. While the forward has been cleared to resume full training for his club side, he has yet to return to actual competition.

In his absence, neither Club America’s Henry Martin nor Sporting Kansas City’s Alan Pulido could produce a breakthrough in the No. 9 role against Costa Rica. While Ochoa eventually saved the day, it was the second time in four matches manager Tata Martino’s squad failed to score.

If there’s any comfort, it’s that the Ticos have been a historically difficult opponent. El Tri has posted only a record of 4-5-1 (wins-draws-losses) in their last 10 meetings against Costa Rica.

Betting Analysis & Pick

There’s not much in the way of track record between these two squads as currently constructed.

Of those who started in Thursday’s semifinals, only three players from each squad also made their managers’ starting XIs in Mexico’s 1-0 2019 Gold Cup Final victory, which was these sides’ last non-friendly meeting.

So what might help us make a read? Perhaps the 2017 and ’18 MLS seasons.

Martino managed Atlanta United’s first two years in the MLS, which also were Berhalter’s last two with Columbus.

The results between them were startlingly one-sided.

United won all four regular-season meetings by two goals. While the Crew prevailed on penalties in the sides’ lone playoff encounter following a 0-0 draw, the tiebreak came after now-USMNT No. 1 Zack Steffen made eight saves for Columbus.

All told, Martino has a record of 6-1-0 against Berhalter between club and international play with a +12 goal differential.

I’m not about to bet against that here. Not when Mexico looked slightly more comfortable against a better side in Costa Rica than the U.S. faced in Honduras. And not when a price of +154 odds — an implied probability of 39.4% — is so reasonable.

Pick: Mexico +154

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