Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Aston Villa vs. Liverpool (Oct. 4)


Paul Ellis/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Mohamed Salah.

  • Aston Villa and Liverpool go at it Sunday in Premier League action at Villa Park.
  • Both clubs are off to great starts, but Dillon Essma gives his reasons why he back the defending champions in this contest.

Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Odds

Aston Villa Odds +600 [BET NOW]
Liverpool  Odds -220 [BET NOW]
Draw +360 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-195/+155) [BET NOW]
Time 2 p.m. ET
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Liverpool heads to Villa Park for Sunday’s Premier League match against Aston Villa in a battle between unbeaten clubs.

It’s quite early in the season, but Aston Villa looks improved from its relegation scare last season.

And to no one’s real surprise, defending champion Liverpool is rolling along and looks to make another run at a championship.

That said, let’s take a look at the match:


The Reds have played quality competition thus far, defeating Leeds, Chelsea and Arsenal. Their offense has been electric, generating 2.86 xG/game, which is second in the league.

The team’s defending has been more of the issue, conceding three goals against Leeds in its opening match. The Reds also made defensive errors against the Gunners in a 3-1 win.

Liverpool has conceded just 0.79 xGA/game over these three games, which creates an xG differential of +2.07.

Its season-long data from the prior campaign is obviously attractive as well. The concern I have for this game is that Liverpool will be missing Sadio Mane and Thiago Alcantara, who tested positive for the coronavirus.

I know Aston Villa has played the Reds tough, but the last game at Villa Park was after the visitors won the league. Honestly, I would look past that result when it comes to this match.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Aston Villa

The Lions have looked great at start of the season.

For a team that barely escaped relegation last season, a 2-0 start is just what the doctor ordered. The Lions signed playmaker Jack Graelish to a new contract and all seems well.

I have liked what I have seen, but the wins have come against struggling Sheffield United and Fulham, which is currently bottom two in the league. On top of that, their 4-goal differential is overvalued and their xG differential is closer to +1.5.

Those numbers are basically all from the Fulham match and they were even with Sheffield. I have to say Fulham was toothless, so I’m really unsure how impressed we should be with that 3-0 score line. I have an open mind about the Lions, but not against this opponent.

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Betting Analysis

Liverpool is only -1.25, which is honestly lower than I thought this would have been. The Reds are typically -1.5 goal favorites against anyone in the bottom half of the table.

Aston Villa has played Liverpool tough in the past and started well thus far, but that’s not why the line is where it’s at. In my opinion, the loss of Mane and Thiago is the reason.

I thought outside of a few defensive errors, Liverpool looked superb against Arsenal. If I’m wrong and Mane leaves a huge gap in the squad, so be it.

I have to back the champions at this number against a team that was bottom three for almost all of last season.

Pick: Liverpool -1.25 (+102)

[Bet Liverpool at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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