English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Arsenal vs. Manchester City (Sunday, Feb. 21)

English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Arsenal vs. Manchester City (Sunday, Feb. 21) article feature image
Credit:

Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images. Pictured: Riyad Mahrez, Rodri and Raheem Sterling.

  • Arsenal takes on the Premier League leader in between crucial Europa League fixtures, with the host side look to make a climb up the table.
  • Manchester City has been unstoppable as of late, going unbeaten in 17 league matches and creeping closer to the title.
  • Kieran Darcy explains why he's backing the Cityzens to continue their winning ways below.

Arsenal vs. Manchester City Odds

Arsenal Odds +540
Manchester City Odds -200
Draw +340
Over/Under 2.5 (-134 /+108)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch Peacock Premium

Odds updated as of Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Arsenal vs. Manchester City is the third of four Premier League fixtures on Sunday. It’s a meeting of two “Big Six” clubs, but a pretty big mismatch in terms of the table, among other things.

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.

The must-have app for soccer bettors

Custom scoreboard for your bets

Free soccer picks from experts

Live odds for every game

Arsenal

Arsenal entered the weekend in 10th place with 34 points, eight points behind fourth-place Chelsea.

The Gunners are coming off a 4-2 win over Leeds last Sunday, but let’s not forget that Leeds have conceded 43 league goals this season — only West Brom have conceded more (55).  Prior to that match, Arsenal had scored just once in their previous three league games combined, which were a scoreless draw with Manchester United, a 2-1 loss at Wolves and a 1-0 loss at Aston Villa.

Arsenal also played a Europa League match on Thursday to a 1-1 draw with Benfica at a neutral venue, in Rome. Manager Mikel Arteta fielded a full-strength starting lineup for that one, with Bukayo Saka scoring the goal.

Arsenal’s position in the league table is just about right, according to the underlying stats. In terms of xG (expected goal) difference, they are ninth at +4.9. according to FBref.com.

Manchester City

Manchester City have now won 17 matches in a row across all competitions, extending their record for English top-flight clubs. They were also in action midweek, winning 3-1 at Everton — a match in which they outshot their opponents, 16-3, and got goals from Phil Foden, Riyad Mahrez and Bernardo Silva. And Kevin De Bruyne made his return from injury off the bench, another plus.

Man City entered the weekend 10 points clear of Manchester United at the top of the table. The last time City dropped points was back on Dec. 15, when they drew 1-1 with West Brom. The last time they lost a match: way back on Nov. 21, a 2-0 defeat at Tottenham.

So much for it being a wide-open title race in England, as many of us expected earlier this season. The underlying numbers tell a similar story in terms of Man City being way ahead of the chasing pack. Their xG difference is currently +28.9. Chelsea and Liverpool were their closest competitors entering the weekend, but at a relatively distant +15.7 and +14.6.

The betting tools used by the pros

Best bets & signals for every game

Projections from proven pros

Profitable betting system picks

Betting Analysis & Picks

When these two clubs met at the Etihad on Oct. 17, it finished 1-0 in Manchester City’s favor, with Raheem Sterling scoring the goal.

I’m expecting a similar result this time around, but it’ll probably be more lopsided. In their past nine league matches, Man City have conceded just two goals — a Mohamed Salah penalty against Liverpool, and Richarlison’s goal on Wednesday, which was essentially a lucky bounce off his leg. And Man City allowed just 2.3 xG in the other seven matches combined!

So I think Arsenal’s chances of scoring are pretty slim, especially given the relatively quick turnaround from their trip to Rome. The Europa League is arguably Arsenal’s bigger priority right now, as it probably offers their best chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season.

As for Man City, they have outscored their opponents 25-2 in those past nine matches.  Gimme Pep Guardiola’s juggernauts to win by two goals or more.

Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (+148)

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Full Review
Bonus = 20% of first deposit match
Max bonus is $1,000
Action's Preferred Sportsbook

How would you rate this article?