Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Crystal Palace vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Oct. 18)

Credit:

Jan Kruger/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton’s Neal Maupay.

  • Clubs in dire need of a positive result go at it Sunday when Crystal Palace hosts Brighton & Hove Albion in Premier League action.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and tells us why he backs the Seagulls in a low-scoring contest.

Crystal Palace vs. Brighton Odds

Crystal Palace Odds +180 [BET NOW]
Brighton Odds +163 [BET NOW]
Draw +225 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-143) [BET NOW]
Time 9 a.m. ET
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Things should get pretty interesting Sunday when Crystal Palace hosts Brighton & Hove Albion in Premier League action at Selhurst Park.

Both sides find themselves toiling in the bottom half of the league table in England’s top flight, with the Eagles sitting in 12th place (2-2-0) on six points. The visitors from the country’s southern coast are 1-3-0 thus far, amassing just three points in the early stages of their campaign.

I found this to be one of the more intriguing matches of the weekend slate, with both clubs trying to find their way in this important part of the season. That said, let’s take a deeper look at the sides:

Crystal Palace

The Eagles could not have asked for a better start to their campaign, ripping off wins against Southampton and Manchester United.

However, Crystal Palace followed those victories with a 2-1 loss against Everton and, most recently, a 4-0 shellacking against Chelsea before the international break. That result was somewhat of a shock, considering how well it had been playing under manager Roy Hodgson.

After watching that match, it has me truly wondering if Crystal Palace simply caught its first two opponents at the right time and it’s just not that quality of a side in the big picture.

Wilfried Zaha has led the line up top for the offensively challenged Eagles, scoring three of the club’s five goals this season.

Mike Hewitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Crystal Palace star Wilfried Zaha, left, battles with Chelsea defender Cesar Azpilicueta.

Crystal Palace doesn’t have much to write home about when it comes to statistical data. The Eagles currently sit on a subpar 2.8 expected goals, which actually looks good compared to their brutal 6.5 expected goals against this season. That results in a -3.7 xGDiff and -0.92 xGDiff/90 minutes.

The club’s xGDiff is third worst in the league, trailing only Manchester United (-3.7 xGDiff) and West Bromwich Albion (-7.2 xGDiff) in the stats basement.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Brighton

The Seagulls won’t be sending any holiday cards to the folks who drew up this season’s schedule either after opening with three of four tilts against Chelsea, Manchester United and Everton.

Brighton fought valiantly in those matches, specifically in the showdown against Manchester United, where it could have easily come away with a point.

The Seagulls have not had many issues finding the back of the net, scoring eight goals in four games. Neal Maupay leads the way with four goals for the club, which hasn’t been shutout once this season.

Brighton’s disappointing start would have you believing its team stats would be poor. However, that’s not remotely the case.

The Seagulls are actually one of the league leaders in all categories, boasting 6.6 expected goals that surprisingly have them tied for fifth out of 20 teams. Brighton is currently on 4.5 expected goals against, resulting in a +2.1 xGDiff and +0.53 xGDiff/90 minutes.

The club’s xGDiff is good enough for sixth overall, which should tell you it’s much better than its record reflects at this point in the season.

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Betting Analysis

This might be the most evenly matched contest of the week’s fixtures. You have two clubs in need of righting their respective ships in a quick fashion or else they could both find themselves mired in a relegation battle far too soon.

That being said, I am giving the edge to Brighton in this fixture. The Seagulls’ lone victory came on the road in their Week 2 victory against Newcastle United, so getting a positive result away from American Express Community Stadium isn’t new to the club.

I am playing Brighton on the alternative line of +.25 and will also back the total staying under the number as well. These teams know where each other sits on the table, so I am expecting a tight, defensive affair.

Picks: Brighton +.25 (-165); Total Under 2.5 Goals (-143)

[Bet Brighton & the total at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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