Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Burnley (Sunday, Feb. 28)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Burnley (Sunday, Feb. 28) article feature image
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Julian Finney/Getty Images. Pictured: Gareth Bale and Dele Alli

  • Tottenham Hotspur is a big favorite against Burnley in Premier League action early Sunday despite going through a rough stretch in domestic play over the last few weeks.
  • The Clarets haven't been much better, playing some of the least-exciting football this season with just 1.9 total goals per match.
  • Check out our best bet for Spurs vs. Burnley below.

Spurs vs. Burnley Odds

Spurs Odds -195
Burnley Odds +600
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-108) 
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings.

Spurs vs. Burnley is the third of five Premier League matches on Sunday, featuring two clubs who should be disappointed with their current positions in the table.

Jose Mourinho’s side entered the weekend in ninth place with 36 points, nine points behind fourth-place West Ham. Sean Dyche’s men were 15th with 28 points, just six points ahead of 18th place Fulham.

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, and how I’m betting this game.

Spurs

Spurs are coming off back-to-back Premier League losses, at West Ham (2-1) last Sunday and at Manchester City (3-0) the week before. They’ve lost five of their past six league matches, the only exception being a 2-0 win over 19th-place West Brom.

They did beat Austrian club Wolfsberger 4-0 at home to advance to the Europa League Round of 16 on Wednesday. But it’s still been a very bad stretch for Harry Kane and company.

Spurs’ position in the table is a deserved one, despite having a game in hand over most of the clubs ahead of them. In fact, Spurs are even one spot lower in terms of xG (expected goal) difference, according to FBRef.com, at +0.5 — with 30.5 xG, and 30.0 xG conceded, in 24 matches.

In these past six league games, Spurs scored a combined total of four goals, with just 4.3 xG. They conceded 10 goals — 10.6 in terms of xG conceded.

Not good.

Burnley

Burnley are coming of back-to-back draws — a scoreless one against West Brom last Saturday, preceded by a 1-1  finish against Fulham.  They’re unbeaten in their past four matches, also including a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace and a 1-1 draw with Brighton.

There’s still pressure on Burnley, however, in terms of getting sucked into a relegation battle, given Fulham’s surge in form.  They’re not safe yet, that’s for sure.

Burnley have scored the second-fewest goals in the league — just 18, in 25 matches. They’ve only conceded 30 goals, but a goal difference of -12 ranks them tied for 15th in the league, and their xG difference of -13.4 ranks them 17th.

Betting Analysis & Picks

The first match between these clubs back in late October was a 1-0 Spurs win at Turf Moor, a relatively even match with just 1.4 total xG in it.

It’s hard to imagine the rematch being a high-scoring affair. Spurs’ recent struggles offensively, Wolfsberger aside, have been mentioned above. The same goes for Burnley — who, by the way, generated just 0.4 xG last week despite West Brom going down a man in the 30th minute after Semi Ajayi’s red card.

There have been 48 goals scored in Burnley’s 25 league matches this season — 1.9 per match, the lowest amount of any club. Eighteen of those 25 matches have finished with two goals or fewer — including 10 of the past 12, and five of the past six.

I’ll take the under at close to even money.

Pick: Total under 2.5 (-108)

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