English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: West Ham United vs. Tottenham Hotspur (Sunday, Feb. 21)

English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: West Ham United vs. Tottenham Hotspur (Sunday, Feb. 21) article feature image
Credit:

Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham Hotspur standouts Son Heung-min and Lucas Moura.

  • Tottenham Hotspur journeys to London Stadium on Sunday for a Premier League showdown with West Ham United.
  • The last time these sides met resulted in a wild, 3-3 draw.
  • Anthony Dabbundo explains why he finds value on Spurs via a first-half wager below.

West Ham vs. Spurs Odds

West Ham Odds +180
Spurs Odds +155
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-115) 
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United played one of the most entertaining matches of the Premier League season in the reverse fixture.

Spurs raced out to a 3-0 lead in the first half before West Ham rallied with three goals in the game’s final 10 minutes to register a tie in North London.

Now, the sides meet again Sunday, as Spurs travel to London Stadium for another intriguing London derby.

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West Ham

Manager David Moyes is in talks for a contract extension with West Ham, which he has sitting the top five and fighting for a coveted Champions League spot. The Hammers have been excellent, specifically on the counterattack and set pieces. Michail Antonio hasn’t been training with the team and is questionable, but the Hammers have a specific weakness in this matchup.

West Ham doesn’t like to be forced to apply pressure and break down its opponents due to the fact it lacks rangy passers. The Hammers like to play direct and that’s difficult to do against a Jose Mourinho side. They were picked apart early on the counter in the first meeting, and the same could be true again in this spot if they aren’t careful.

West Ham has been great at playing from ahead in games, and it has been better in the second half. Their second-half xG difference is +5.74, compared to +3.12 in the first half, per Understat.

Spurs

The first half of games this season for Spurs have been among the league’s best. They’ve often come out pressing higher up the pitch, generating chances and have an excellent run of finishing opportunities on their first or second shots of games. While some of the numbers are variance due to finishing, the difference between first-half and second-half Spurs is stunning.

The club holds a +3.82 xG difference in first halves, combined with -4.28 xGD in the second half. Spurs have outscored opponents, 20-6, in the opening half, but have been outscored by a 19-16 margin in the second frame.

Typically, these splits are really noisy in small samples like the 23 Spurs games this season, but when you watch them it makes sense. When they get leads, they tend to bunker in and try to protect it. Mourinho is notorious for this strategy, but Spurs don’t have the individual defensive talent to pull it off. Their season has been defined by late equalizers, penalties and defensive miscues.

For as much good as Harry Kane and Son Heung-min have been, it’s often been undone in second halves as Son gets pinned deep defending and the attack becomes a one-man show with Kane.

The potential start of Dele Alli provides optimism for how Spurs might play, given his pressing and shot-getting abilities. He’s unlikely to go a full 90 minutes, but Spurs should be better in the first half of this game than their East London counterparts.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite the gulf of difference in the xG numbers by half for both of these teams, the bookmakers are not pricing in said difference.

It creates an edge on Spurs in the opening stanza, where I’d play them up to -130 on the Draw No Bet line. The club’s inability to play from behind keeps me off the full-game spread, but it’s much more likely than the Hammers to take the lead into the dressing room at halftime.

If Spurs do get up early or take a lead into the half, look to play West Ham live to get back into the match.

Pick: Spurs 1H — Draw No Bet (-130 or better)

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