Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Sheffield United vs. Leeds Preview (Sunday, Sept. 27)

Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Sheffield United vs. Leeds Preview (Sunday, Sept. 27) article feature image
Credit:

Oli Scarff/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United players Helder Costa, left, and Patrick Bamford celebrate a goal.

  • Things get off to an early start in the Premier League on Sunday when Sheffield United hosts Leeds United at Bramhall Lane.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and shares his top plays.

Sheffield United vs. Leeds United Odds

Sheffield Odds +175 [BET NOW]
Leeds  Odds +160 [BET NOW]
Draw +235 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-114) [BET NOW]
Time 7 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds updated as of Sunday at 12:20 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Things get started bright and early Sunday morning in Premier League action when Sheffield United hosts Leeds United at Bramall Lane.

The showdown marks the first time a Yorkshire derby is being contested in England’s top flight in almost two decades.

Sheffield has struggled out of the gate, failing to score a goal in its opening two losses. In contrast, Leeds has been a bright spot among the newly-promoted clubs and continues to make noise around the league.

That said, let’s take a look at Sheffield and Leeds to see what could be on their plates in this interesting contest.

Sheffield United

Things could not have gotten off to a worse start for the Blades, who suffered back-to-back losses against Aston Villa and Wolverhampton to kick off their league campaign.

Going back to last season, Sheffield has now lost five consecutive league fixtures. A loss to Leeds would mark just the third time in the club’s storied history it would open the season with three defeats.

And saying a match is a “must-win” situation this early might sound crazy, but that’s pretty much the case. Sheffield faces Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool in four of its next five contests, which would strike fear in anyone struggling like this club.

When it comes to data and statistics, there is very little to go on. However, Sheffield currently sits on 1.5 expected goals and 2.1 expected goals against, resulting in a -0.60 xGDiff and -0.32 xGDiff/90 minutes.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Leeds

What a wild start to the campaign it has been for the Peacocks, who are beyond thrilled to be back in England’s top flight.

Leeds comes into the match fresh off a 4-3 victory against Fulham. It marked the second consecutive match with the same final scoreline, only this time it was the Peacocks who found themselves on the winning side of things.

Liverpool earned that 4-3 win against Leeds to open the season.

The Peacocks have one of the most explosive offenses outside of Liverpool and Manchester City in the entire league, which is going to put them in the mix throughout the season.

I don’t think this club will have much to worry about in regard to the relegation fight, with such a promising and youthful bunch leading the way for Argentinian gaffer Marcelo Bielsa.

Leeds boasts 2.3 expected goals and a brutal 5.1 expected goals against, resulting in a -2.8 xGDiff and -1.42 xGDiff/90 minutes. The numbers in expected goals against, xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes are so poor that they rank second-to-last in both categories out of 20 teams in the league.

Betting Analysis

I really think we are going to see an open match at Bramall Lane. Sheffield is more than due to open its scoring account, which should come against an opponent that has conceded seven goals in two matches thus far.

That said, I am backing the total to go over the number and both teams to score goals. As porous as the Leeds defense has been this season, the offense has been unreal. I can’t see either club not having its way in their respective defensive thirds of the pitch.

If you’re looking for a side to back, I would take a swing on Leeds via the draw no bet line. You can get the Peacocks at -115 on DraftKings at the moment, which I think is more than a fair price.

Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-109); Both Teams To Score — Yes (-143)

[Bet the over and both teams to score at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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