Liverpool vs. Burnley Thursday Premier League Betting Odds & Pick for Jan. 21
Paul Greenwood – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool standout Mohamed Salah.
- Liverpool welcomes struggling Burnley to Anfield for Thursday's Premier League match.
- The Reds are looking to bag all three points in their quest to return to the top of the table.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the contest and gives his value play on the total below.
Liverpool vs. Burnley Odds
|Liverpool Odds||-530 [BET NOW]|
|Burnley Odds||+1400 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+600 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+133/-167) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Thursday | 3 p.m. ET|
Liverpool looks to keep pace with the top of the table Thursday when it hosts 17th-place Burnley.
The Reds were held to a 0-0 draw with Manchester United over the weekend, which means it remains three points from first place in the standings. Liverpool started out the season as one of the hottest teams on European soil, but have since sputtered and sit winless in its last four matches.
However, this showdown with Burnley is a perfect opportunity for the Reds to get back on track with a positive result.
Burnley is in the relegation fight right now, parked just four points from safety. The Clarets have been playing much better over their past eight matches, racking up 11 of a possible 24 points. That is in sharp contrast to the five points it secured in their first eight matches of the campaign.
Burnley was the only team last season to earn a point at Anfield, securing a 1-1 tie against Liverpool. Can they pull off a similar feat in this meeting?
So, what has gone wrong for the Reds these past four games? Their offense isn’t creating as many chances as it did earlier in the season. Liverpool has created just 1.34 expected goals per match, compared to 2.07 xG in their first 14 matches.
Despite massive injuries to a lot of its defenders, Liverpool has actually been defending really well in its last four games, allowing just 1.20 xG per match.
However, the Reds have struggled facing off against a 4-4-2 formation this season, which Burnley lines up in. They’ve faced the 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 three times during this four-match skid, scoring just once in the process. So, the Clarets do have a chance at shutting down the Reds high-flying attack.
Things are starting to look up for the Clarets over the past eight matches, especially on the defensive end of the pitch, as they’ve allowed just five goals. In fact, they held the red-hot Manchester United attack to only 1.41 xG a little more than a week ago.
Burnley plays a much different game than the rest of the league, as manager Sean Dyche’s squad favors defensive perfection over explosive offense.
The Clarets play out of the aforementioned 4-4-2 formation, which allows them to keep eight guys behind the ball and clog up the middle of the pitch, forcing opponents to play the ball in from out wide. The results haven’t been great though so far as they are allowing 1.39 xG per match.
Playing in a 4-4-2 has caused their offense to suffer as well, as they’re only creating 0.82 xG per match. So, it’s going to be difficult for Burnley to try and break down Liverpool’s defense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Burnley is most likely going to sit back and park the bus in front of goal, with the hope it can earn a 0-0 stalemate. Given how Liverpool’s attack has been stymied by the type of formation the Clarets play, I think we’re going to see a lower-scoring match than expected.
Since I only have 2.71 goals projected for this match, I think there is some value on the alternative total of under three goals at even money.
Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (+100)