Tottenham vs Bournemouth Odds, Prediction | Premier League Picks
Luke Walker/Getty. Pictured: Richarlison, Philip Billing.
Tottenham vs Bournemouth Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -125 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275 / +210 |
Spurs will be hosting the red hot Bournemouth this Sunday as both sides will be looking to pick up all three points. Tottenham will seek to get back to winning ways, while Bournemouth plan on continuing their impressive form.
Tottenham lost their last match 4-2 to Brighton in a performance to forget for Ange's men. They now sit fifth in the Premier League and a win in this match could potentially take them as high as third.
Bournemouth are all the way up to 12th in the table, just off the top 10 based on goal difference. They are unbeaten in their last seven matches as they are one of the most in-form sides in the league.
Let's get into how I see this playing out and how to bet Tottenham vs Bournemouth.
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Tottenham
Spurs have won three of their last four matches, but not in the same convincing fashion compared to earlier in the season. They handled Newcastle with ease a few weeks ago, but since they have scraped out a win against Forest and barely hung on to a 2-1 win over Everton last weekend. Ange needs to be given credit for picking up hard earned points even with the amount of injuries Spurs still have.
For this match, Spurs will be without Romero, Maddison, Van de Ven and Bentancur to injury, as well as Bissouma and Kulusevski to suspension. These are six elite players for Spurs who allow Ange to play his preferred style of play. Without Van de Ven and Romero, the high line that Spurs like to play will be no where near as effective as it typically is. We have seen it a few times this season where teams are able to exploit this high line, especially without their two best defenders.
In terms of absentees for the rest of the squad, Maddison, Bissouma and Kulusevski being out will not allow the squad to press like they are accustomed to. Spurs have the lowest PPDA in the league with 9.3, meaning they are one of the elite pressing sides in Europe. With Spurs having key players out for this matchup, they will struggle being able to control the match as they would like, especially with how in-form this Bournemouth side is.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth have won four straight matches with three of them being away from home. They are as confident as any side in the league and will believe they can beat anyone, anytime, anywhere. Additionally, they have won each of their last four matches away from the Vitality Stadium. Andoni Iraola has implemented his brand of football with this side and even with the horrendous start to the season, he stayed true to his vision. Similar to the manager in the other dugout in this match.
The Cherries have been led this season by their No. 9, Dominic Solanke, who has 12 goals in the Premier League so far. He has over-performed his xG number by almost two goals, showing that not only has he been a quality finisher this year, but this Bournemouth side is creating a ton of big chances.
Bournemouth play in a similar way to Tottenham. They want to control possession, press high and turn the ball over high. Their PPDA is 11.8, so while they are not the elite pressing team that Spurs are, they are still in the process of implementing Iraola's system into this club. They obviously do not have the same quality that Spurs do, but they are playing as a cohesive unit at the moment and have all the confidence in the world.
Tottenham vs Bournemouth
Prediction
Spurs have been extremely lucky defensively all season. They have conceded the third-most xG in the league with 33.2, only ahead of Luton and Sheffield United. Their goalkeeper, Vicario, has bailed them out time and time again this season.
Bournemouth are also in the bottom 10 with a lot of their defensive metrics. They have given up nearly 30 xG and have conceded the seventh-most shots on target in the league. They have been better as of late, but these numbers are not sustainable to a top 10 side.
Everything in this match points to the over. Two shaky defensive sides, Spurs have injuries to their two best defensive players and both sides will be looking to pick up all three points. I predict this match at just over four goals so I see a ton of value on over 3.5 goals.
Pick: Over 3.5 (-130 or better)
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