Tottenham vs Burnley Odds, Prediction | FA Cup Picks
(Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images) Pictured: Guglielmo Vicario
Tottenham vs Burnley Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -200 |
| Burnley Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Vincent Kompany and Burnley travel to London to face Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup. Spurs are most definitely in the hunt for the Premier League title, but will be looking to add a trophy to their collection in the FA Cup. Meanwhile, Burnley will be looking to just stay in the Premier League another year.
Tottenham is fifth in the Premier League with 39 points. They are outside the top four, but are only three points behind second-place Aston Villa. Tottenham are coming off an impressive 3-1 win in their last match against an in-form Bournemouth side.
Burnley are 19th in the league and just two points ahead of bottom of the table Sheffield United. They have won just three matches all season and are coming off a hard-fought 3-2 loss against Aston Villa.
There are no guarantees in the FA Cup, so let's see look at how to bet Tottenham vs Burnley.
Tottenham
Spurs have been better than many expected this season, however, they've been over performing at an alarming rate. Tottenham's expected goal difference through the first 20 matches is just +0.4, which is behind the likes of Everton, Newcastle, and Brentford. Yet they sit just a point behind, Arsenal who's expected goal difference is +20.0. This is most likely unsustainable throughout an entire season.
To show how fortunate they have been, we can focus on two players — Heung-Min Son and Guglielmo Vicario. Son has been the most clinical finisher in the league this season, over performing his xG by nearly five goals. On the other end of the pitch, Vicario has been the most efficient goalkeeper in the league, saving an absurd 6.7 goals this season. These two players alone have caused nearly a 12-goal swing in Tottenham's season.
We will see the type of lineup that Ange Postecoglou puts out in this one because of all the injuries that Spurs have endured recently. They are just a few weeks away from getting James Maddison and Micky van de Ven back, but they suffered a huge blow last weekend with Pape Sarr injuring his hamstring against Bournemouth. I still anticipate a strong lineup from Postecoglou, who seems to treat every match just an important as the next, especially with Tottenham being so desperate for a trophy.
Burnley
Kompany's tactics of late have been much better suited for a team of Burnley's quality. He is still pressing and trying to play out of the back, but it seems as though he has toned it down a bit as he's realized that these players can't play like Manchester City or Arsenal.
What should be concerning for Burnley is that they sit 19th in the league, yet have been over performing some of their underlying metrics. Their goalkeeper, James Trafford, has saved 2.3 xG throughout the season, yet they have conceded 41 goals. In terms of attacking, they have scored nearly three goals more than their xG tally, but have only found the back of the net 20 times this season.
They have had no easy task in their past two matches, playing Liverpool and Aston Villa in a four-day span. This match won't be a walk in the park either as Spurs will be determined to avoid embarrassment and advance to the next round. If Burnley wants any chance of winning this match, Kompany will need to get his tactics perfect. He will not be able to play out of the back against Spurs as they are one of the best pressing sides in Europe.
Tottenham vs Burnley
Prediction
The result of this match is very dependent on how Kompany sets up his side. We know Tottenham is going to set up in a high-press system with a high back line that's looking to score goals.
If Burnley tries to match Tottenham's style, this could be a bloodbath. However, if Kompany sits back and plays long balls with a purpose, then — with a little luck — I could see this being a battle of grit.
Having said that, I still believe that Tottenham has far too much quality to not win this match. There is not a big enough sample size, but Vicario seems to be one of the more talented goalkeepers in the league, and we know how dangerous their front line can be.
I will be taking Tottenham -1 as I can't see Burnley winning or sending this match to extra time.
Pick: Tottenham -1 (-140 or better)
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