Liverpool vs Tottenham Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Match Preview

Saturday, Sep. 30

12:30 p.m. ET

NBC

Tottenham Odds	+190
Liverpool Odds	+115
Draw	+300
Over / Under	2.5  -250 / +200

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Tottenham and Liverpool are two of the last four unbeaten sides in the Premier League through six match weeks. Spurs settled for a thrilling 2-2 draw at Arsenal last weekend in the North London Derby and the Lilywhites will have another tough test at home against Liverpool on Saturday.

The Reds won comfortably at home against West Ham last weekend 3-1, but they failed to keep a clean sheet and seem to be really leaning into the 'we'll just outscore you' mindset. Liverpool's defensive metrics come into this match quite mediocre, but the transition attacking ability of this Reds side should present plenty of opportunities to score on Spurs' attacking-minded system on Saturday.

Tottenham had very little trouble defending Arsenal from settled possession on Sunday, as most of the Gunners chances came from extremely high turnovers or set pieces in the derby. Arsenal were a lot more passive in possession and in transition than Liverpool are sure to be, which will create a real stress test for Ange Postecoglou's defense.

Here is my pick for the massive Tottenham vs Liverpool fixture.

Tottenham conceded 1.2 non-penalty xGA to Arsenal, but I have legitimate questions about how good Arsenal's attack really is. For me, this match is more comparable tactically to the one against Manchester United. Spurs struggled to cope with United's transition attacks in the first half and then began to take control by tweaking the build-up structure in the second half and changing midfield personnel.

Injuries are certainly important to watch in this match as James Maddison remains questionable to play. He and Heung-min Son did train on Friday, which gives me the expectation that both will be in the starting XI for Spurs. Maddison has been Spurs' best creator this season and Son is the key central striker as Tottenham's attack has played considerably better with him central.

Brennan Johnson didn't train on Friday, so I don't expect him to start on Saturday. He managed four shots from the penalty area in his Spurs start, which is considerably better than his production from Nottingham Forest last year. The question is whether Spurs go to Manor Solomon from the left or Richarlison (with Son out wide) if Johnson can't go.

One underrated element of Spurs out of possession thus far: they've forced the third-most high turnovers in the league and Liverpool have struggled with teams who can force the backline into mistakes and then attack quickly in transition.

It's true that Liverpool aren't pressing as intensely or as high up the pitch this season when you compare their numbers to past iterations of Jurgen Klopp. They rank 12th in high turnovers forced in the league and 11th in build-up completion rate allowed. Arsenal pressed Spurs extremely high and forced a few turnovers in the penalty area. Liverpool will not apply the same level of pressure as high up the pitch as the Gunners did.

Liverpool's lack of pressing intensity combined with average midfield ball winning means that the defense is 10th in shots allowed, bottom 10 in box entries conceded and ninth in expected threat allowed. The Reds rank sixth in non-penalty xG allowed, but most of that is because they've been excellent at preventing big chances. When you consider the rest of the Reds' defensive profile, Spurs should be able to break through for chances in behind.

The Reds haven't been exposed as much as the underlying numbers suggest they could be in this match. They've especially struggled defensively early in matches — Bournemouth, Wolves, West Ham, Chelsea and Newcastle all scored in the opening half against Spurs.

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This match will be decided by which team is better able to create those transition big moments from opposition mistakes. Spurs are better at forcing mistakes, but the quality of Liverpool's attackers is superior. The market clearly thinks that Liverpool is now the second-best team in the Premier League behind only Manchester City. I agree with this sentiment, but I'm a little more down on the Reds without Trent Alexander-Arnold's creativity to pick out passes and create chances.

The Reds won't have the midfield athleticism edge and the defense is still too average to trust as a road favorite against a fellow top side. Spurs are the value side here as I have this projected right near a pick'em, assuming Maddison is in the lineup.

Pick: Spurs +0.5 (-140 or better)