Tottenham vs West Ham Prediction | Premier League Picks
Stu Forster/Getty. Pictured: Giovani Lo Celso.
Tottenham vs West Ham Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -133 |
| West Ham Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
Spurs will be trying to get back to winning ways as they host David Moyes’ West Ham in a clash of London clubs this Thursday. These sides have been trending in opposite directions over the last month, but Spurs will fancy their chances at home.
Ange and Tottenham have cooled off after their sizzling start to this season, losing three of their last four, with their last win coming over a month ago. To be fair to them, they have had a tough run of matches as well as an injury crisis that Ange never could have prepared for.
West Ham have been in great form over the past month, winning four of their last five across all competitions. They have not lost since November 4th and while they are not playing the most beautiful brand of football, they are picking up points, which in the end is what matters.
Let’s see how I expect Tottenham vs West Ham to play out and how I'm betting this one.
Tottenham
Spurs have dealt with key injuries over the past month, so it should not come as a surprise that they have come back down to earth with recent results. With players like Maddison, van de Ven, Richarlison and Sarr all injured, it is admirable that Postecoglou is still playing his brand of football and staying competitive in matches.
It should be encouraging for Spurs supporters that their manager is so confident in his style of play that he is willing to lose a few matches now in order to fulfill his long-term vision for the club. However, this is not encouraging for people who are trying to predict and make money on these matches.
These past four matches have shown how important van de Ven is for this Spurs side. He is so quick and reads the game so well that he has been able to bail them out of matches earlier in the season. Now that Ben Davies and Emerson Royal are playing as center backs, they have been conceding at an alarming rate. Spurs have conceded at least two goals in each of their last four matches and quite frankly have been outplayed in those matches.
West Ham
West Ham have been one of the most interesting sides in the league this season. They have not played particularly well at any point in this season, yet they are ninth in the league, ahead of Chelsea and Brentford. Like Postecoglou, Moyes has his set way of playing, however, his way of playing is polar opposite to Spurs.
Moyes' men are comfortable in a low block, counterattacking style of play. The Hammers have some of the least high turnovers in the league this season, showing that they enjoy sitting back in their own half, disrupting play and then transitioning into offense as quick as possible. Players like Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus have proved pivotal in West Ham’s style of play.
In order for a counterattacking style of play to work, a team needs players who are quick in transition. Bowen and Kudus have been some of the most direct attacking players in the league and have been very efficient in their finishing all season long. Bowen is over-performing his xG number by nearly 3 goals, while Kudus is over-performing his by nearly two goals. Without these two, West Ham’s season would be looking a lot more like last year than it is currently.
They have been fortunate to not have many injuries to key players, and this will be sure to help the Hammers in this one as Moyes can use his experience and personnel to create some solid tactical matchups against this makeshift Spurs side.
Tottenham vs West Ham
Prediction
Neither of these sides have been efficient defensively. West Ham have conceded the sixth-highest xG number, while Spurs the ninth-highest. Both sides have been over-performing these numbers due to Vicario and Areola being so good this season.
This is due to change at some point as it is not sustainable throughout an entire Premier League season, and with the way both managers enjoy playing, I expect more goals in this one. With Spurs playing such a high line, and West Ham having the speed to play on the counter, I will be taking over three goals in this match.
There have been three or more goals in each of the last five Spurs matches, since these injuries started piling up, and I expect them to keep scoring goals as that is how Ange wants to play.
Pick: Over 3 (-140 via DraftKings)
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