Bundesliga Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions for Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen (Tuesday, April 20)
Stefan Matzke – sampics/Corbis via Getty Images. Pictured: Bayern Munich players celebrate.
- Bayern Munich welcomes Bayer Leverkusen to Allianz Arena for Tuesday's Bundesliga match.
- The Bavarians, who are closing in on another title in the German top flight, are coming off a tough win against Wolfsburg on the weekend.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the match below and explains why he's expecting a low-scoring affair.
Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-205|
|Bayer Leverkusen Odds||+500|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-105 / -118)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Bayern Munich is three wins away from their ninth consecutive Bundesliga title. The season has five matches to play, and the Bavarians have been eliminated from the Champions League and DFB-Pokal, meaning all of their focus is on retaining their league title.
When these two teams last met in December, Bayer Leverkusen came flying out of the start of the season and was atop the league table. Bayern beat them 2-1 on a last-minute Robert Lewandowski goal that day and it began Leverkusen’s collapse down the table. Leverkusen is unlikely to make top four and it’s looking to secure a Europa League spot for next season.
Leverkusen’s inevitable regression came hard and they’ve dropped into sixth place. They have won just five of their last 17 contests in the league and their underlying numbers suggest they are barely an above average side in this league.
Paris Saint-Germain ended Bayern’s campaign to repeat as European champions last week, and the injuries continue to come for the inevitable German champions as they head into the final stretch of the season.
Prolific striker Robert Lewandowski is unlikely to return from his injury in time for the match on Tuesday, and he is vital to the attack. While he offers very little in terms of pressures on the defensive end, Lewandowski is the leading goal scorer in Germany and Bayern is +0.98 xG difference per 90 when he’s on the pitch vs. when he’s not.
He’s also not the only player Bayern is missing. Leon Goretzka is a valuable central midfielder and his likely replacement should be more defensive than Goretzka, who loves to get forward. Bayern’s best winger, Serge Gnabry, is unlikely to feature, in favor of an out-of-form Leroy Sané.
Although Bayern is an offensive juggernaut with defensive liabilities, the total is too high for its shorthanded attack. Backup striker Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting is both worse in attack than Lewandowski and much better at pressing and tackling defensively, which improves Bayern’s defense.
Leverkusen’s attack succeeded early in the season because of significant over-performance of their expected goals numbers. Teams also tried to play Leverkusen’s pressing style with them, which hasn’t worked for any team in the COVID-19 soccer era. Because of tired legs and tight fixture congestion, former manager Peter Bosz was fired following a downturn in results.
Hannes Wolf is in charge now and Leverkusen’s defense has improved since his arrival. They’ve allowed 1.8 xGA combined in their last three matches, two wins and a draw. Bosz’s pressing style wasn’t suited at all to this current era of COVID and their attack wasn’t successful enough at winning the ball high up the pitch and turning that into chances and goals.
The result is a defense that’s top three in xGA and just 10th in xGF. Leverkusen doesn’t really play a direct style of attacking through the middle, which is the best way to get after this leaky Bayern defense. For that reason, it will be difficult for Leverkusen to create high-quality chances.
Their improved defense should keep Bayern at bay enough to keep this game under 3.5 goals.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Betting Bayern unders is never fun, always painful and often just needs a few defensive lapses and Lewandowski moments of quality to be ruined. But I’m going back to the under here on Bayern and Leverkusen.
Bayern are cruising to their title and won’t have their best attackers. Leverkusen’s attacking patterns aren’t really suited to expose Bayern. My projections put this game at 3.08 goals, so I do show value on the under 3.5. Because of xG over-performance, both attacks have been a tad overrated all season.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-120 or better)