Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions: 5 Bets for PSG vs. Bayern Munich & Chelsea vs. Porto

Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions: 5 Bets for PSG vs. Bayern Munich & Chelsea vs. Porto article feature image
Credit:

Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea standout Christian Pulisic, right, and teammate Kai Havertz.

  • Two clubs will punch their tickets to the Champions League seminfinal round in Tuesday's matches.
  • Our crew of soccer analysts have five best bets for you on the card.
  • Check out their picks for PSG vs. Bayern Munich and Chelsea vs. Porto below.

We close out a pair of Champions League quarterfinal-round matchups Tuesday, with two clubs in control of their destinies in the European showcase.

French powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain looks to end Bayern Munich’s hopes of successfully defending its championship after earning a 3-2 road victory in the first leg last time out. The other showdown features Premier League power Chelsea, which earned a 2-0 win over Portuguese side Porto in the first leg. The Blues are heavily favored in this home affair at Stamford Bridge.

Our Action Network soccer analysts have targeted five plays in these games, with two of them loving Bayern Munich and the others focusing on game/team totals in the Chelsea match.

Let’s take a look at their in-depth analysis and top picks in these contests.


MATCH ANALYST THE PICK
Chelsea vs. Porto BJ Cunningham Total Under 2.5 Goals (-106)
PSG vs. Bayern Munich Anthony Dabbundo Bayern Munich ML (+110)
Chelsea vs. Porto Jeremy Pond Total Under 2.5 Goals (-106)
Chelsea vs. Porto Kieran Darcy Porto Team Total Under 0.5 (+155)
PSG vs. Bayern Munich Matthew Trebby Bayern Munich ML (+110)

Odds updated as of Tuesday morning via DraftKings.


BJ Cunningham: Chelsea vs. Porto — Total Under 2.5 Goals (-106)

The 2-0 deficit might be too difficult of a hill to climb for Porto. The reason it’s  here is because of its defense, which has been a fortress in Primeira Liga play, allowing only 0.94 expected goals per match.

The reason for that is because the Dragons play out of a 4-4-2 formation, one of the most defensive setups in soccer. So, they might have to change up the formation for the second leg and use something they’re not used to playing.

The second leg should be routine for Chelsea, which is allowing only 0.53 xG per match under new manager Thomas Tuchel. They’re also creating 1.87 xG per match in the process.

Tactically, Tuchel changed Chelsea’s system to a 3-4-2-1 from the 4-3-3 used by Lampard, which has allowed the club to be more unpredictable. The main objective of the 3-4-2-1 is to completely overwhelm opposing defenses by outnumbering them on the counter attack.

The new formation allows Chelsea some tactical flexibility, giving it the option to adjust on the fly based on how the match is going. That has allowed the Blues to dominate possession and keep opponents on their toes.

Chelsea is a heavy favorite to advance, only needing to draw or lose by a goal, so I think we will see a very low-scoring match, with the home side likely to sit back and not committing many players forward in this contest.

[Bet on Chelsea vs. Porto now at DraftKings and get $250 FREE.]

Anthony Dabbundo: Bayern Munich ML (+110) vs. PSG

Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich played an electric first leg of their opening quarterfinal that reminded all of us why we love the Champions League so much.

It featured plenty of high-quality performances, with a lot of attacking play and goals. I cashed a PSG moneyline ticket in that match, but the market has moved too far toward the French side since its undeserved win.

Although the Parisians scored three goals, they only won because of an excellent goalkeeper performance from Keylor Navas and efficient finishing in front of the Bayern Munich goal.

The Bavarians held a whopping 3.1-1.5 xG advantage, according to fbref.com. Bayern’ Munich’s post-shot xG was 3.6 as well, meaning Navas saved 1.6 goals with his play alone, while it’s goalkeeper — Manuel Neuer — underperformed the post-shot expected 1.5 number.

There were long stretches of this game where PSG was completely unable to stop Bayern Munich from getting into the penalty area. The Bavarians completed 26 passes into the Parisians’ 18-yard-box compared to three for the French side.

Despite the PSG win, I upgraded Bayern Munich in my numbers and downgraded the host, whose defense offered zero resistance to an offense missing two of its three best attackers, including Robert Lewandowski.

The second leg should play out similarly to the first, due to the fact PSG is essentially protecting a 1.5-goal lead via its three away goals. Bayern Munich can still win this game and not advance, so if it winds up 2-1 or 1-0 in favor of the Bavarians, we’re unlikely to see PSG selling out for goals because this result would also suit them in the long run.

[Bet Bayern Munich now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

Jeremy Pond: Chelsea vs. Porto — Total Under 2.5 Goals (-106)

Chelsea was all too kind to our group of Action Network prognosticators in the opening-leg victory over Porto. All four of us backed the Blues in some capacity in that 2-0 shutout win, which delivered a perfect 4-0 record.

Now, we turn to the final leg of this matchup taking place on Chelsea’s home soil at Stamford Bridge. And like the first meeting between these combatants, this looks like another defensive, low-scoring affair coming our way.

The Blues and Dragons are two of the best defensive units across Europe.  Chelsea has been particularly good throughout this competition, notching seven clean sheets in their last nine games in the tournament. Porto has been just as strong, recording seven shutouts in their last 12 Primeira League tilts.

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However, life in UCL action hasn’t been as pretty. The Dragons have not recorded a clean sheet in its last three UCL contests, which includes two battles with Italian stalwart Juventus in the previous round.

The total of 2.5 goals currently stands at -117 odds via DraftKings, which seems to be way too low at the moment. I forecast these odds to be driven down even further, likely closing somewhere in the neighborhood of -130 odds at the opening whistle.

That said, I’m jumping all over this number and will make it my top pick. There have been two goals or less in Chelsea’s last four UCL matches, which has me confident manager Thomas Tuchel’s lads and their foes make it five in a row.

[Bet Chelsea vs. Porto at DraftKings and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]

Kieran Darcy: Porto — Team Total Under 0.5 Goals (+155) vs. Chelsea

This PSG-Bayern Munich tie is all but over after the first leg.

Chelsea won the initial meeting by a 2-0 scoreline, pocketing crucial “away” goals in the process (both legs are being played at a neutral venue in Seville due to COVID-19 travel restrictions).

That said, the Blues’ chances of advancing to the semifinal round sit at 99 percent, according to FiveThirtyEightPorto did outshoot Chelsea by a 13-6 margin in the opening contest, but those shots were worth just 1.0  expected goals combined, according to FBRef.

Chelsea did concede a goal in its 4-1 victory over Crystal Palace this past Saturday, but it came on its only shot of the game. The Eagles were outshot, 23-1, in the convincing defeat. 

Despite that conceded goal and the fluky 5-2 loss to West Bromwich Albion the week before, which included Thiago Silva’s 29th-minute red card, Chelsea has posted clean sheets in 13 of manager Thomas Tuchel’s first 17 matches at the helm of the Stamford Bridge side. That includes both legs against La Liga leader Atlético Madrid in the previous round of this competition.

Needless to say, I like Chelsea’s chances of getting another big shutout against a weaker opponent.

[Bet Chelsea vs. Porto now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

Matthew Trebby: Bayern Munich ML (+110) vs. PSG

PSG won the first leg, because of incredible finishing and a wasteful Bayern Munich attack. The squads should be very similar for this match, with the glaring absence of Robert Lewandowski standing out for the German giants.

I don’t see this fixture being any different than the first leg. Bayern Munich will control the ball, given its quality midfield and PSG looking to hit it on the counterattack.

The reigning European champion knows it has to score at least twice to advance, which means they will be firing on all cylinders given its overall skill and experience. No doubt, there will be chances for the Parisians, but the best will come to the Bavarians, who are more than capable of taking them without Lewandowski.

Any plus number is good here. There’s no true home-field advantage since fans aren’t allowed at Parc des Princes, plus there’s nowhere to hide against what will surely be an onslaught of Bayern Munich chances.

[Bet Bayern Munich now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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