Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool (Tuesday, Feb. 16)

Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool (Tuesday, Feb. 16) article feature image
Credit:

Hasan Bratic/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: RB Leipzig standout Tyler Adams, right, celebrates a goal with teammates.

  • Liverpool is spiraling downward entering its match against red-hot RB Leipzig in Tuesday's Champions League showdown in Budapest.
  • Can the Red Bulls strike first in this two-leg, Round of 16 series agents the struggling Reds?
  • Jeremy Pond previews why he's backing Leipzig and finds value on the total for this UCL clash below.

RB Leipzig vs. Liverpool Odds

RB Leipzig Odds +210
Liverpool Odds +130
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-152/+123) 
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
TV CBS All Access

Odds updated as of Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


European powerhouses going in opposite directions do battle Tuesday when RB Leipzig takes on Liverpool in a Champions League Round of 16 affair.

The first leg of this tie should have been on Leipzig’s home soil. However, Germany’s COVID-19 travel restrictions turned this match into neutral-field affair, with the relocation of it to Puskás Aréna in Budapest.

Liverpool enters this showdown in the midst of a shocking tailspin. The reigning Premier League champion has lost three consecutive games, including five of their last seven fixtures across all competitions.

In contrast, RB Leipzig has won four on the bounce and, more impressively, gone unbeaten in 15 of their last 17 games overall. The Bundesliga giant reached the knockout phase of this prestigious European tournament by finishing second in Group H behind French juggernaut Paris Saint-Germain.

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RB Leipzig

Things could not be going any better for Leipzig. The Red Bulls continue to nip at the heels of defending UCL champion Bayern Munich in the German top flight, sitting five points behind the league leader.

This is also just the second time Leipzig has reached the knockout stage of the competition, with the first coming during last season’s dream run that ended in defeat at the hands of PSG in the semifinal round.

Had this been a home fixture, the Red Bulls would have had a massive advantage over the Reds. Leipzig has just suffered one home loss across all competitions, so it has to be frustrated with this being played at neutral site.

Perhaps the biggest positive for Leipzig this season has been its balanced offensive attack, which features four players each on a team-best four goals. United States international Tyler Adams, who scored in a 3-2 road loss at Mainz on Jan. 23, continues to shine for the Red Bulls in the middle of the pitch.

Statistically, RB Leipzig was the definition of flat in group play. The Red Bulls wound up with 7.8 expected goals and 7.8 expected goals against, resulting in a bland +0.1 xGDiff and +0.01 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Liverpool

Manager Jürgen Klopp has to be wondering what it’s going to take to get his team back in any sort of form that’s comparable to what it showed during last season’s title-winning campaign.

The Reds have looked horrible their last three times out, highlighted by a 4-1 shellacking delivered by Manchester City two games back. That effort was bookended by losses against surging Brighton & Hove Albion (1-0) and Sunday’s 3-1 defeat at the hands of Leicester City.

In all three of those poor performances, Klopp’s men lost the xG battle. The Cityzens outclassed them the most, finishing with whopping 3.1-1.3 xG edge.

Liverpool does have bit of history working in its favor here, though. The Reds are unbeaten in their last five away games when facing German foes, earning three wins and two draws. You have to go back almost two decades to find a defeat, which was a 4-2 loss to Bayer Leverkusen in a 2002 UCL quarterfinal.

When comparing numbers with RB Leipzig, Liverpool’s figures were slightly better in the group stage. The Reds finished with 9.6 expected goals and 8.1 expected goals, generating a +1.5  xGDiff and +0.25 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

This really is an intriguing matchup between clubs in vastly different forms at the moment. Add in the fact Liverpool will likely be minus standouts Fabinho and James Milner, and you have a difficult situation for the de facto visitors.

That said, I am backing Leipzig via a Draw No Bet wager at +125 odds as my top play. The Red Bulls are in better form, plus they’re clearly going to have a chip on their shoulder due to the fact they were supposed to have a home fixture.

Liverpool is going to have issues against a Leipzig side licking its chops, knowing it’s facing an out-of-form Merseyside outfit in complete disarray.

I will also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the alternative number of three goals as well. There have been two goals or fewer in nine of Liverpool’s last 10 UCL matches, which I anticipate happens again. The Reds will look to maintain possession in a match they’re going to be outmanned.

Picks: RB Leipzig — Draw No Bet (+125) | Total Under 3 Goals (-134)

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