Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions for Lazio vs. Zenit St. Petersburg (Tuesday, Nov. 24)
Marco Rosi / Fotonotizia. Pictured: Joaquin Correa
Lazio vs. Zenit St. Petersburg Odds
|Lazio odds||-162 [Bet Now]|
|Zenit St. Petersburg odds||+430 [Bet Now]|
|Draw||+320 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130/+105) [Bet Now]|
|Time||Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CBS All-Access|
Tuesday’s match between Lazio and Zenit St. Petersburg will have major implications in the race to make it out of Group F.
Lazio is currently in second place and one point behind Dortmund for the top spot, while Zenit sit in last place on one point and will need to pull the upset to have a chance to advance to the knockout rounds or get one of the drop-down spots into the Europa League.
Lazio are big favorites to take all three points on Tuesday but this doesn’t project to be an easy hill to climb.
I Biancocelesti are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions, but they have struggled a bit in Serie A with just four wins from their first eight matches. Lazio are in eighth place in the table and have the ninth-best expected goal differential at -0.4.
The main issue for Simone Inzaghi is that his offense has not performed at the same level that it did in 2019/20. Last season, Lazio averaged 1.78 xGF per match. This season that number has dipped down to 1.44.
Lazio was lucky to escape with a 1-1 draw against Zenit three weeks ago as the Russian champions won the xG battle, 1.06 to 0.62. In fact, Lazio has a -1.6 xG differential through their first three Champions League matches.
To make matters worse, Lazio could be without center midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, center-back Luis Felipe and goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha.
The Russian champions have had a tough start to Champions League play, but they’ve been a bit unfortunate. They lost their opening match at home to Club Brugge despite completely dominating play and winning the xG battle, 2.59 to 1.8. They also hung with Dortmund and only allowed 0.6 xG through the first 80 minutes before surrendering two late goals.
Zenit have been absolutely dominant in Russian Premier League play, scoring 1.73 xGF per match and allowing only 0.74 xG against. Both of those marks are the best in the league.
Zenit gave Lazio a ton of problems the last time these two played and should be able to not only stay in this match, but potentially win it.
Projections and Pick
Lazio opened as a -117 favorite and have taken plenty of money to push them up to -162 at the time of writing. I think that steam has created a lot of value on the underdogs.
My projections make this match closer to a pick ’em, so I’ll play Zenit +1 (-129) and would play it up to -147.
Pick: Zenit +1 (-129)