Burnley vs. Sheffield United Tuesday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: (Dec. 29)
Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images. Pictured: Burnley goalkeeper Nick Pope makes a save against Arsenal.
- Two of the Premier League's worst teams meet Tuesday when Burnley hosts Sheffield United at Turf Moor.
- Can the Clarets continue their recent run of form and keep the Blades winless on the season?
- Jeremy Pond breaks it all down for you below.
Burnley vs. Sheffield United Odds
|Burnley Odds||+123 [BET NOW]|
|Sheffield United Odds||+240 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+215 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+145/-182) [BET NOW]|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
Life in and around the Premier League relegation zone will be on full display Tuesday when Burnley hosts Sheffield United in a huge match at Turf Moor.
The Clarets, fresh off Sunday’s 1-0 loss to Leeds at Elland Road, are just two points clear of the bottom three on the table. However, Burnley have been playing it best brand of soccer in recent matches. The Leeds setback was its first loss in five matches, with the host side earning six points along the way.
In contrast, things have been miserable for the Blades. They’re winless on the season, low-lighted by a miserable 0-2-13 record (W-D-L) that has them bringing up the rear in England’s top flight. The most recent disappointment came Saturday via its 1-0 home defeat to second-place Everton.
The Blades actually held a 1.2-0.7 advantage in expected goals in the setback against the Toffees, only intensifying the dejected feeling at Bramall Lane.
Let’s take a look at these struggling sides and see we could be on the horizon.
Manager Sean Dyche and the Clarets have been in their best form this season, despite that frustrating defeat to Leeds. They’ve created the slightest breathing room from the drop zone, now getting the perfect chance to move even further clear against the Blades.
Solid victories against Arsenal and Wolves, along with respectable draws with Everton and Aston Villa, are creating plenty of confidence in the Burnley locker room heading into the second part of its campaign.
As far as advanced metrics go, Burnley’s statistics mirror its overall sluggish performances on the pitch. The Clarets boast a brutal 12.2 expected goals and 20.9 expected goals against, generating in a dismal -8.7 xGDiff and -0.62 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Burnley’s xG total is second worst in the 20-team league, plus it ranks 18th overall in xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes. Needless to say, those numbers must improve if the Clarets are going navigate their way clear of the drop zone.
Things continue to get more dreary for the Blades, who are now 11 points away from safety through 15 fixtures. Sheffield United has draws against Fulham and Brighton & Hove Albion as the lone bright spots on its résumé, so things must change — and they must change fast — moving forward.
If you’re looking to pinpoint a specific area that’s led to the Blades’ demise from a season ago, good luck in that search. The problems are everywhere.
David McGoldrick has 50 percent of Sheffield United’s eight goals. Defensively, the 29 goals conceded are just as bad they sound. The Blades have not held one opponent scoreless through all competitions, conceding more than two goals per game up to this point.
When comparing stats in similar categories, Sheffield United’s performance is not that much different than its opponent’s resume. The Blades have generated a mediocre 15.0 xGs and disappointing 24.2 expected goals against, resulting in a -9.2 xGDiff and -0.62 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
If you simply look at the combatants’ xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes, you wind up with somewhat of a wash. That alone makes this a very interesting fixture on the crowded schedule.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This really is a make-or-break match for these sides. Both need all three points and nothing less if they want to give their respective seasons life heading into the new year.
I really thought Burnley were beyond unfortunate to not come away with at least a draw against Leeds. You would have to think Dyche and his troops will be fired up for this match, with the hope of taking their frustrations out on the league’s worst club.
That being said, I am backing Burnley on the moneyline at a nice price to walk away with all three points at Turf Moor. The Clarets have just that one loss since their Nov. 28 defeat at the hands of Manchester City, which gives me confidence in this angle.
I will also back the total to stay under the number as well. The price is a little steep at -180, so I recommend shopping around on our soccer odds page to see if you can get something in the -160 to -170 range when more books open totals.
Picks: Burnley ML (+133) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-180)