Premier League Odds & Betting Picks for Chelsea vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Tuesday, April 20)

Premier League Odds & Betting Picks for Chelsea vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Tuesday, April 20) article feature image
Credit:

Michael Regan – The FA/The FA via Getty Images. Pictured; Chelsea standout Hakim Ziyech scores as goal with Manchester City’s Benjamin Mendy, right, defending on the play.

  • Chelsea welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to Stamford Bridge for Tuesday's Premier League match.
  • The Blues, who are coming off a stunning victory against Manchester City in FA Cup action, could jump into third place with a win over the Seagulls.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks things down below and explains why he expects Chelsea's defense to shine in a low-scoring meeting.

Chelsea vs. Brighton Odds

Chelsea Odds -175
Brighton Odds +540
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (+123 / -155)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings.

Nothing like having to play a tough Premier League match after the biggest win of your season. Right, Chelsea?

Well, that’s the scenario Tuesday when the west London club hosts everyone’s favorite Premier League underachiever — Brighton & Hove Albion — in an important matchup at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues enter this game fresh off a stunning 1-0 victory over Manchester City in Saturday’s FA Cup semifinal showdown at Wembley Stadium. Hakim Ziyech’s goal in the 55th minute was all they needed to earn a spot in the May 15 championship.

On the other side, Brighton is coming off of a scoreless draw against Everton the last time out. Once fixed members of the relegation crew, the Seagulls have picked up seven points in their last four contests, which has steered them clear of most drop-zone chatter.

Historically, Chelsea has dominated Brighton in the lifetime series. The Blues are unbeaten in their last 14 meetings with the Seagulls, winning 12 of them. The two other games ended in draws. You have to go all the way back to 1933 to find the last time (and only time) Brighton defeated its host.

Chelsea

The Blues pulled off their biggest win of the season as huge underdogs in that massive win over Manchester City. It was the signature moment in manager Thomas Tuchel’s reign at the club since taking over for Frank Lampard.

The Blues now face Leicester City for the tournament hardware at one of soccer’s most hallowed grounds. The Foxes punched their ticket to the title match with a 1-0 victory over Southampton in Sunday’s second semifinal.

With all that excitement surrounding the Blues, it wouldn’t be hard to imagine them walking on the pitch a little less focused then usual. However, this match is pivotal in the race for the league’s top-four positions. A win over the Seagulls would vault the Blues into third place, leapfrogging West Ham United and Leicester City in the process.

The last time these sides squared off was their season opener, with Chelsea earning a 3-1 victory. The Blues won the match, but lost the expected-goals battle by a 1.4-1.2 margin.

Brighton

The Seagulls were flirting with disaster much of their disappointing campaign, but have since come alive with some big results to all but ensure a return to England’s top flight.

Prior to a hard-luck 2-1 loss against Manchester United two games back, Brighton earned important victories over Southampton (2-1) and Newcastle United (3-0) to move into 16th place in the table. The Seagulls’ 33 points put them six clear of 18th-place Fulham, which suffered a gutting 1-1 draw against Arsenal over the weekend.

Now, Brighton is all about finishing the season strong and moving up the standings. I’m not sure it’s going to gain any ground facing this Chelsea outfit, but getting past the likes of Crystal Palace, Southampton and Newcastle should be the goal the rest of the way.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

There is nothing more difficult than trying to handicap matches where the dominant team is coming in on short rest after a monumental victory. That’s the exact scenario when it comes to Chelsea.

As much as I’d like to fade the Blues against the Seagulls, I just don’t see a way the visitors are going to: 1) Get a result; and, 2) Score a goal against the staunch defense they’re about to face.

For those reasons, I’m backing the total to stay under the alternative number of 2.25 goals at -104 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. Chelsea has recorded three consecutive clean sheets on home soil, plus it has utterly dominated proceedings when facing this opponent.

I will also sprinkle a little on Brighton to get blanked at -103 odds. If you toss out the 5-2 loss (aka: anomaly) against West Bromwich Albion, Chelsea has only conceded a ridiculous four goals in 19 matches across all competitions. That stat line gives me confidence that another shutout is on the horizon.

Pick: Total Under 2.25 Goals (-104) | Brighton Team Total Under 0.5 Goals (-103)

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