Leeds United vs. Southampton EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Leeds Due for Regression?

Leeds United vs. Southampton EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Leeds Due for Regression? article feature image
Credit:

Matt Watson/Southampton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Southampton standout Takumi Minamino.

  • Leeds and Southampton are separated by just two points entering Tuesday's Premier League fixture.
  • Can the Saints pick up their first league win since early January at Elland Road?
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down this affair and details why he backs Southampton in a low-scoring match below.

Leeds vs. Southampton Odds

Leeds Odds +128
Southampton Odds +210
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-162 /+130) 
Day | Time Tuesday | 1 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Monday night and via DraftKings.

Clubs separated by just two points in the Premier League standings go at it Tuesday when Leeds United welcomes Southampton to Elland Road.

The Peacocks enter this match having lost back-to-back fixtures, including Saturday’s 1-0 shutout against Wolves. An own goal doomed Leeds in that defeat, keeping the 12th-place side on 32 points.

In contrast, the Saints put up a solid fight en route to a 1-1 stalemate with league power Chelsea at St. Mary’s Stadium. Takumi Minamino scored for Southampton, which has 30 points and a firm grip on 14th place.

Let’s take a look at these teams and see what could be on deck.

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Leeds

Manager Marcelo Bielsa and the Peacocks really looked out of sorts in that disappointing showing against Wolves. They simply could not get anything going and wound up losing the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.3-0.7 margin.

Patrick Bamford, who has a shot to finish second in the Golden Boot race, carries Leeds with a team-best 12 goals. Jack Harrison has led the Peacocks’ supporting cast, racking up six goals and four assists in 23 games.

Statistically, Leeds is arguably the league’s most unbalanced when it comes to the advanced numbers. The Peacocks sit on a stellar 38.0 xG but counter that with a ghastly 41.4 expected goals against that generate a -3.4 xGDiff and -0.14 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Leeds is fourth in xG, trailing only top-five clubs Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea. However, the Peacocks rank 19th out of 20 teams in expected goals against (xGA), sitting just ahead of relegation favorite West Bromwich Albion.

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Southampton

Things have been going downhill for the Saints since the start of 2021. Southampton has lost six of its last seven league matches, with the draw against Chelsea being the lone positive result during that stretch.

That point was the first earned since a 1-0 triumph against Arsenal back on Jan. 4 at St. Mary’s Stadium. Danny Ings’ goal two minutes in against the Gunners was all the club needed to secure all three points.

However, the Saints have blossomed in FA Cup action. They’ve recorded three shutouts on the bounce, picking up victories against Shrewsbury, Arsenal and Wolves to reach the quarterfinal round. Next up is a March 20 meeting against Bournemouth.

When comparing numbers with Leeds, Southampton trails its foe in all major categories except xGA this season. The Saints sit on a lowly 23.4 expected goals and 31.3 expected goals against, resulting in a subpar -7.9 xGDiff and -0.33 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

It pained me to fade Leeds in its last two matches, but all signs pointed toward some regression heading into difficult tilts against Arsenal and Wolves. Needless to say, we got it right and the Peacocks dropped both affairs.

Bottom line, something just seems to be off with Leeds. Even though the club is set to face a struggling side, this just doesn’t seem to be the ideal get-right spot for a host on short rest after that defeat at Molineux Stadium.

That said, I am backing Southampton via a Draw No Bet wager at a ripe price. The Saints had their best outing in weeks against Chelsea, so I expect that to carry over into this fixture.

I will also play the total to stay under the alternative number of 3.25 goals. There has been only one goal scored in four of the last six meetings between these teams, so if you combine that with the short turnaround, you have to like your chances with this wager.

Picks: Southampton — Draw No Bet (+128) | Total Under 3.25 Goals (-157)

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