Premier League Odds & Betting Picks for Manchester United vs. Leicester City (Tuesday, May 11)
Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Jamie Vardy.
- Leicester City will look to snag all three points as it climbs toward the Champions League when it takes on Manchester United on Tuesday afternoon.
- The Red Devils, however, have been in excellent form of late and could stop them.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the game and explains why Manchester United can grab all three points at home.
Manchester United vs. Leicester City Odds
|Manchester United Odds||+230|
|Leicester City Odds||+123|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-114 / -109)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 1 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET via DraftKings.|
Leicester City looks to maintain its slim lead for the fourth and final Champions League spot when it travels to Old Trafford to take on Manchester United Tuesday.
Manchester United is having a fantastic season and can all but lock up a second-place finish in the Premier League table. The Red Devils are in the middle of jam-packed stretch of fixtures, as this will be their third of four matches in seven days. After two matches and with Liverpool coming up this week, Ole Gunnar Solskjær is going to be forced to rotate his squad on Tuesday.
🗣"I wish I could have said let's go full out in these games, but it is impossible."
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is still not happy about Manchester United playing 4 games in 8 days due to the safety of his players pic.twitter.com/4fihcZpfvf
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) May 10, 2021
Leicester’s fantastic season is starting to slip through its fingers after a 4-2 loss at home to Newcastle on May 7.
The Foxes now sit five points above West Ham for the final Champions League spot and cannot afford to drop points with Liverpool also sitting six points behind them with a game in hand. Three points for Leicester would all but guarantee Champions League football next season, so it has a lot to play for on Tuesday.
Manchester United is in fantastic form in the Premier League, going unbeaten in its last 14 matches after its 3-1 win over Aston Villa on Sunday.
The reason for that is because, defensively, it’s been as solid as anybody over the second half of the season. Since the calendar turned to 2021, the Red Devils are allowing only 0.87 xG per match. Their offense has done its job as well, as it’s averaging 1.71 xG per match, which is the second-highest rate in the Premier League behind only Manchester City.
Edinson Cavani has been the man in form for Manchester United as of late, scoring eight goals in his last seven appearances for the Red Devils. He now has the second-best expected goal rate in the Premier League at 0.64 xG per 90 minutes. He’ll be a very difficult matchup for Leicester’s struggling defense.
Manchester United has also been in impressive form at home as of late, winning five of its last six matches and outscoring opponents, 21-6.
The Foxes are really lucky to be sitting in a Champions League spot in the table. Based on Understat’s expected points metric, the Foxes should actually be in sixth place. The reason for that is because they’ve been fortunate in front of net. Leicester has scored 63 goals on the season but has created only 55.15 expected goals.
Jamie Vardy has once again been in fantastic goal scoring form, but now he has some help up front in the form of Kelechi Iheanacho. Iheanacho has been in the best form of anyone in the Premier League as he has scored 10 goals since the beginning of March.
No PL player has scored more goals since the start of March than Kelechi Iheanacho 🇳🇬 pic.twitter.com/EaXLFcrNjv
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) May 7, 2021
The biggest change that Brendan Rogers has made over the past few months is switching to a 3-4-1-2 so Vardy and Iheanacho can be on the field at the same time. The switch came on March 14 against Sheffield United, and since that match, Leicester is averaging 2.11 xG per match while allowing only 1.13 xG per match.
However, a lot of that came against lesser opponents, as the Foxes created over half of their expected goals over the last seven matches against Sheffield United and West Brom alone. Manchester United will be a whole new challenge for the Foxes on Tuesday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This is a bad spot for Manchester United, playing its third match in only six days while also not having a lot to play for. However, I still think it’s undervalued at home given the incredible form it’s been in since the calendar turned to 2021.
Since I have Manchester United projected at -113, I think there’s plenty of value on the Red Devils’ draw no bet line at -134 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Manchester United Draw No Bet (-134)
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