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Newcastle United vs. Leeds United EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Offenses Should Have Their Way (Jan. 26)

Newcastle United vs. Leeds United EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Offenses Should Have Their Way (Jan. 26) article feature image

Michael Regan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Jack Harrison, left, battles for the ball.

  • Leeds United takes on Newcastle United in a Premier League fixture on Tuesday at St. James' Park.
  • These teams boast two of the league's worst defenses, which could cause the offenses to light up the scoreboard.
  • Jeremy Pond thinks that will be the case in this one, and he explains why below.

Newcastle vs. Leeds Odds

Newcastle Odds +290
Leeds Odds -112
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+120) 
Day | Time Tuesday | 1 p.m. ET

Odds updated as of Monday at 1:15 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Things could get interesting Tuesday in Premier League action when Newcastle United hosts Leeds United in a key match at St. James’ Park.

The Magpies are in a world of trouble at the moment, going winless in nine of their last 10 games across all competitions. Making matters worse is the fact Newcastle has been shut out in seven of those affairs, including four on the bounce, and continues to creep closer to the relegation zone in 16th place.

On the other side, the Peacocks continue to be that Jekyll-and-Hyde outfit that I’ve grown an affinity for in their return to England’s top flight. After winning two in a row, they suffered back-to-back defeats and look to get back to their winning ways with this Tyneside fixture.

If you’re looking for a defensive battle, you might want to find another game to watch. These are two of the worst clubs when it comes to keeping the opposition off the scoreboard, which is supported by the numbers.

Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could in store on the pitch.

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Manager Steve Bruce continues to maintain his spot on the hot seat, with his Magpies sliding down the league table. Newcastle, which has lost four in a row, is just seven points away from the drop zone. That’s clearly cause for concern for a team that’s simply underperformed this season.

Life in northeast England did get a minor ray of light when Allan Saint-Maximin returned as a reserve in the weekend setback against Aston Villa. The star winger missed two months of action dealing with a positive COVID-19 test and the lingering effects of contracting the coronavirus.

Looking at Newcastle’s overall statistics show a club dealing with all sorts of turmoil on the pitch. The Magpies sit on 16.3 expected goals and a disturbing 28.0 expected goals against, resulting in a disappointing -11.7 xGDiff and -0.62 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Newcastle’s xGDiff and xGDiff/90 ranks second to last in the entire league, trailing only lowly West Bromwich Albion (-23.1 xGDiff and 1.21 xGDiff/90) in both categories.


The Peacocks continue to be the league’s darlings this season, delivering an entertaining brand of soccer that makes them “must-see TV” every time they step on the pitch.

Marcelo Bielsa’s lads continue to hover right below the top half of the standings, currently sitting in 12th place on 23 points. Leeds has endured consecutive shutout defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton & Hove Albion, so getting a positive result is a must for winger Jack Harrison and Company.

When comparing advanced metrics with Newcastle, Leeds is obviously ahead of its foe in all numbers. However, outside of its xG line, the stats are nothing to write home about in any way.

The Peacocks maintain a sizzling 29.6 expected goals, yet parlay the impressive figure with a horrific 32.7 expected goals against that results in a subpar -3.1 xGDiff and -0.17 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

If Leeds can improve even the slightest, plus maintain its scoring prowess, there’s no reason it can’t finish inside the top 10 this season.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

On paper, this match is exactly what it looks like. You have two of the league’s worst defending teams going at it, with both in desperate need of a positive result for their own reasons.

I can’t see either side letting the game come to them, so I am shying away from taking a side and will back the total going over the alternative number of 2.75 goals in this spot. I will also play both teams to score as well.

Despite Newcastle’s offensive woes, I am leaning on the historic perspective of this series and the fact it has scored at least two goals in 12 of its last 15 fixtures against Leeds across all competitions.

Throw in the fact there have been at least three goals in six of the Peacocks’ last seven league affairs, and I like my chances of hitting both wagers.

Pick: Total Over 2.75 Goals (-120) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-175)

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