USA vs Germany Odds, Pick, Predictions | International Soccer Preview
Icon Sportswire/Getty. Pictured: Christian Pulisic.
USA vs Germany Odds
| USA Odds | +300 |
| Germany Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
The US Men's National Team will play their most-anticipated friendly of Gregg Berhalter's managerial tenure when they face European power Germany on Saturday afternoon.
For the Americans, the biggest storyline is the reunion between Berhalter and attacking midfielder Giovanni Reyna, who will be playing for the full-time boss for the first time since an ugly saga involving both men's families in the aftermath of the USMNT's elimination from the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
Meanwhile, Germany are facing some criticism from their domestic clubs for opting for a trans-Atlantic trip during the October international window. But it's the only chance the DFB will realistically have to do some on-site logistics planning before the 2026 World Cup comes to the United States, Canada and Mexico.
This is the teams' first meeting since a 2015 friendly, ending the longest layoff between the sides since their inaugural meeting in the 1993 U.S. Cup.
USA
The Americans have yet to lose a game in 2023 — despite being eliminated in the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinals against Panama on penalties — but this will definitely be the best side they've faced in terms of pedigree since the last World Cup.
The only other teams on this year's itinerary that approach Germany's level are Colombia and Mexico. The former played the U.S. in January when most of each team's European-based players weren't available. The latter was arguably at the program's lowest point in a generation during a 3-0 loss to the U.S. in the CONCACAF Nations League final in June.
And unlike some other friendlies past against big European powers, it almost feels like more of the pressure will be on the United States because of the Berhalter-Reyna angle.
In case you've forgotten, the saga began in the aftermath of the 2022 World Cup, when Berhalter made remarks that he thought were off the record about an unnamed player who was nearly sent home from Qatar for his reaction to his role at the tournament.
Reyna was quickly identified as the player in question. And according to reports, his parents — including former USMNT great and Berhalter teammate Claudio Reyna — voiced frustration to U.S. Soccer officials that their son was publicly called out while they had remained quiet about a past domestic violence incident in which Berhalter had allegedly struck his now-wife Rosalind.
The USSF investigated as Berhalter's contract expired, while first Anthony Hudson and then B.J. Callaghan led the program on an interim basis. Berhalter was officially re-hired in the late spring but allowed Callaghan to guide the side through the end of the Gold Cup.
Reyna has not played since Berhalter's return to the full-time managerial role following the Gold Cup, but he was heavily involved in the Americans' successful spell in the Nations League under Callaghan in June, starting both games and contributing both assists in a 2-0 semifinal victory over Canada.
Injury prevented Reyna from a September call-up, and he's only played 27 minutes all season for Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Berhalter said he is hoping to help ramp up Reyna's fitness so he can be closer to 90-minutes ready when he returns to Germany.
Germany
Julian Nagelsmann will be making his national team managerial debut on Saturday after Germany parted with Hansi Flick in the federation's first-ever firing of a senior men's national team manager.
The 36-year-old — who is only two years the senior of his two oldest players in this camp — rose through the coaching ranks of TSG Hoffenheim, seen by many as the original innovators of the 4-2-2-2 high press that has become the global calling card of the Red Bull football group.
And despite his youthfulness, he has already posted mostly successful tenures for the Hoffenheim senior team and RB Leipzig, before moving on to Bayern Munich — where he was eventually fired despite winning the Bundesliga in his first season.
In some ways, Nagelsmann's story and the questions surrounding his national team appointment are similar to when Berhalter first took the USMNT job in the later half of 2018. Both cut their coaching teeth nearly entirely in club football. And while their theories on the game are different, they were both known for being detailed tacticians — a trait that can sometimes lead to information overload in the short window of time national teams spend together.
This will be Der Mannschaft's first friendly since a 1-0 victory over Oman in a pre-World Cup tuneup last November. Their six fixtures this calendar year have come in UEFA Nations League A play, where they finished a disappointing third place in their group.
USA vs Germany
Pick & Prediction
Friendlies like these often involve more unknowns than bettors would prefer, and that's especially true here. Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, we don't have much of a track record when it comes to how Berhalter approaches friendlies against big European powers. We have basically nothing on Nagelsmann.
What we do have is history between these sides that is greater than you might expect for two teams on different continents. That can be more important on the international stage than it would be in club football because to some extent it shows how the nations view each other as footballing countries and how they might approach future matches.
In the case of the U.S. and Germany, when these sides have met in friendly competition — and let's include one match in the U.S. Cup, an exhibition tournament, as a friendly — over 2.5 has cashed in all seven matches. Both teams have scored in five of those, including the last four. In other words, both teams historically have viewed the occasion as a chance to play more freely against an opponent that will oblige.
The caveat is that Berhalter's U.S. teams have played a bit less openly in attack than their predecessors. But that's possibly counteracted by Nagelsmann's high-press tactics, especially in a home game for the U.S. where they'll shoulder more of the burden of creating the game.
With that in mind, I'm playing yes on both teams to score in a game that doesn't finish as a draw, at +125 odds and an implied 44.4% probability. This is a play that has cashed in five of these teams' seven friendly meetings. You might get a better return playing the United States and Germany to win and both teams to score separately at different books after line shopping.
Additionally, it's another national team game where Christian Pulisic's goal-scoring value hasn't been properly adjusted for in international play. He's a bargain at +333 odds to score against the nation where he began his pro career.
Picks: Both teams to score & No draw (+125 via DraftKings), Christian Pulisic to score (+333 via BetMGM)
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