USA vs Uzbekistan Odds, Pick, Predictions | International Soccer Picks

USA vs Uzbekistan Odds, Pick, Predictions | International Soccer Picks article feature image

Pictured: Christian Pulisic. (Photo by John Dorton/USSF/Getty Images for USSF)

USA vs Uzbekistan Odds

USA Odds-350
Uzbekistan Odds+800
Over/Under2.5 (-138/ +107)
Day | TimeSaturday | 5:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchTNT, Telemundo | Peacock
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Gregg Berhalter will manage the U.S. men's national team for the first time since the 2022 FIFA World Cup as USA begins its September international window with a friendly against Uzbekistan in St. Louis on Saturday.

Berhalter's previous contract expired at the end of 2022 and his lengthy re-appointment process — complicated by an investigation into a three-decades-old domestic violence incident brought to light by the family of U.S. winger Gio Reyna — concluded too late for him to rejoin the team during a busy June and July.

Former interim manager B.J. Callaghan remains on staff after helping the U.S. win the 2022-2023 CONCACAF Nations League. He also presided over a semifinal exit at the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup.

This is the first-ever meeting between the nations and the first of four friendlies for the USMNT over the next two international windows.

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When looking at the USMNT, the first question is always what kind of roster has been called in. Is it one consisting of European-based talent? MLS talen? Or a mix?

In this case, it's mostly the former, with many of the regulars from the past World Cup squad expected to play. And no one enters the window in better form than leading attacker Christian Pulisic, who has already scored twice for AC Milan since joining the Italian giants last month.

But summer moves have gone less smoothly for some of the rest of Berhalter's core. Folarin Balogun's transfer saga ran until near the deadline and, as a result, he's played only 17 league minutes for Monaco. Brenden Aaronson was sent off in his Union Berlin debut, though he managed to make it back into the first XI after serving a one-game suspension.

Meanwhile, Weston McKennie didn't move on like some expected and has seen his role with Juventus diminished in the new season.

Neither Reyna nor Tyler Adams are part of the squad for this camp due to their respective injuries. While the latter may be more of a known commodity, there's a lot of curiosity about how the former will be re-integrated with the rest of Berhalter's squad once he's fit.

Reyna was very influential during the USA's Nations League triumph, but the fallout of the controversy from last winter has to be navigated — just not in this window.


Saturday's opponent is ranked No. 73 in the FIFA World Rankings, exactly one spot ahead of Oman. If you're looking for a regional comparison, El Salvador is at No. 75.

The White Wolves narrowly missed out (two points) on reaching the third round of Asian qualifying for the 2022 World Cup, and their best moment as a national program came via a fourth-place finish at the 2011 Asian Cup.

The squad includes a couple of European-based talents and is led by Cagliari striker Eldor Shomurodov, Uzbekistan's all-time leading scorer.

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USA vs Uzbekistan Pick

There have been a few stumbles in friendlies under Berhalter — back-to-back home losses in 2019 to Jamaica and Venezuela come to mind — but the more recent performances, combined with a much better sense of familiarity among the squad, suggests little chance of an upset here.

I think bookmakers are undervaluing the Americans' excellent defensive record against clearly inferior opponents.

If you believe the FIFA rankings — which are imperfect, but far better than they once were — failing to win outright on Saturday would be the worst friendly result of the Berhalter era. And in every home friendly when the United States has emerged victorious under Berhalter, they've kept a clean sheet.

So, that's what I'm playing here at -108 odds and an implied 51.9% probability. The lack of track record makes this feel like a little bit of a leap of faith, but so are most wagers on these kinds of friendlies.

Pick: USA win to nil (-108, BetRivers)

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