Wales vs. Denmark Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction: Back Danes in Euro 2020 Knockout Round (June 26)

Wales vs. Denmark Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction: Back Danes in Euro 2020 Knockout Round (June 26) article feature image
Credit:

Oliver Hardt – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images. Pictured: Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg.

  • Denmark and Wales will kick off Euro 2020 knockout round action on Saturday (12 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • The Danes have posted strong underlying metrics through their first three matches, and have an easier side of the draw in the knockout round.
  • Get our Denmark vs. Wales pick and preview below.

Wales vs. Denmark Odds

Wales Odds +425
Denmark Odds -120
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+163 / -200)
Day | Time Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

The Euro 2020 group stage is over, and the tournament has been reduced from 24 teams to 16 ahead of the knockout stage.

Denmark snuck into the knockout stage with a 4-1 win over Russia after losing its first two group games, while Wales lost to Italy in its last match but had already secured its spot in the knockout stage prior to that loss.

Denmark has some of the most impressive underlying numbers of the entire tournament despite its results not quite matching the performances through three matches.

The Welsh will be looking to replicate the magic of their Euro 2016 run to the semifinals but are underdogs in this match after a fortunate draw against Switzerland and a dominant win over lowly Turkey.

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Can Wales Create More Chances?

Wales qualified for the knockout stage pretty comfortably in the end after taking four points from its first two group matches, but it might not have been that way without its late equalizer against Switzerland.

The Welsh have generated next to nothing in attack in two of their three games, totaling 0.5 xG against both Switzerland and Italy’s B-team. As impressive as they looked against Turkey, when they had time on the ball and space to run in transition to generate 2.9 xG, the Welsh have been disjointed in attack when facing teams applying ball pressure in their own half.

If Gareth Bale can get time on the ball in the midfield and spring Aaron Rams-ey and Daniel James forward, then Wales can be dangerous against this Danish defense. However, it’s much more likely that Denmark’s midfield pairing of Thomas Delaney and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, along with its pressing structure, will overwhelm and shut down the Welsh attack.

Wales is just 14th in passes into the penalty area and 13th in crosses into the area. Denmark’s midfield should control this game and create the majority of the chances.

How Denmark Bounced Back After Eriksen Situation

The loss of Christian Eriksen following his collapse on the field in the opening group stage match could have derailed the Danes’ Euro campaign almost as it started.

Combine the emotional turmoil with the loss of their best creative player, and Denmark appeared to be in trouble after a 2-1 loss to Belgium in the second group match.

But the Danes rallied against Russia, finally had some fortune go their way and dominated all three games of their group. They should have won the group in terms of expected goals. Denmark has the fourth-best xG difference per 90 in the tournament, fourth-most passes into the penalty area and fifth-most crosses into the area.

Defensively, Denmark allows the fourth-fewest of both crosses and passes into its own area. The names may not jump off the page of elite attacking talent for Denmark, but it has had no issues creating chances, and the ball progression numbers suggest they are no fluke.

Hojbjerg has made up for the missing Eriksen by leading the team in progressive passes and passes into the final third.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Denmark has a wide-open path to make a run into the late rounds of the knockout stage, and Wales was generally fortunate to make it out of the group given the overall scope of its three performances.

The Danes will dominate the midfield, and their defense has proven to be difficult to create against on counterattacks or in transition. Denmark has been undervalued all tournament and is again here.

It comes down to winning this in 90 minutes, but given the Danes’ chance creation in the final third, they should find the goal and advance to the quarterfinals.

Pick: Denmark ML (-125 or better)

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