Champions League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back RB Leipzig vs. Manchester United (Wednesday, Oct. 28)

RB Leipzig vs Manchester United

Odds updated as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings.

The Red Devils welcome the Red Bulls to Manchester on Wednesday, as they face-off at Old Trafford in Champions League group play.

Both clubs picked up three points in the first match day, and look to build on that here. We have an up-and-coming club against an established giant.

RB Leipzig

The Red Bulls are on quite the run of form. They finished third in the Bundesliga last season, and had the advanced metrics better than everyone but domestic and European champs Bayern Munich. They also made it all the way to the Champions League semifinals last campaign, before losing to PSG.

The Red Bulls are unbeaten in their last six matches, going 4-0-1 in the Bundesliga and winning their first UCL fixture against Istanbul Basaksehir 2-0. Leipzig did lose their best player and goal scorer, Timo Werner, to Chelsea in the offseason.

Julian Nagelsmann is one of the most sought after managers in the world, and he really put Timo in great opportunities to score last season. Their star CB, Dayot Upamecano, is one of the best young center halfs in the world. He was actually a target of Man United, and continues to grow game by game.

One would think the club would take a step back without their top scorer, but Leipzig haven't missed a beat yet. Through five games, they are second in the Bundesliga in both expected goals (2.55/game) and expected goals against (0.71/game). I am very high on Nagelsmann and how he manages this side. If we did a blind resume test on these two clubs purely by data, you would say Leipzig should be favored over Man United.

I would take Nagelsmann over Ole Gunnar Solskjaer any day of the week. Playing at Old Trafford will be a challenge, and United did just beat PSG, so it's no small task. However, I think the Red Bulls have a legitimate shot here on Wednesday and to make it out of Group H.

Manchester United

I will be the first to admit, the Red Devils are a tough batch to read from game to game. They have the ability to beat the likes of Manchester City twice last season and beat PSG in the first round of Champions League fixtures, but they have also lost to Crystal Palace and really should have lost to Brighton in the Premier League.

To me, they play best when they go up against elite competition, and can falter when they get over-confident against smaller clubs. Man United also tend to struggle more against teams that sit in their box and defend. The Red Devils are lethal on the counter, and I think they are best when they can defend and catch you on the break.

Leipzig will need to keep an eye on that. The question is, which Man United will we see come Wednesday?

Man U's start in the Premier League has been exceedingly poor, currently 15th in the table, and the advanced data isn't much better (1.28 xG/game, 1.86 xGA/game). It's five games, and I expect them to get it together.

The 2-1 score over PSG was a bit of a surprise, given the form of the two clubs. Again, they play up to their competition and have a lethal counter attack. The xG was about even 1.5-1.5, but was an impressive result regardless. Man United have elite talent up front, but do have weaknesses at the back. Leipzig are a dangerous team and it will be interesting to see if their defense can handle the different looks Nagelsmann will throw at them.

I think the value here is on the over 2.75 (-103) or Leipzig's team total over 1.5 at +150. The safer play is the overall total, but I like Leipzig to win, so the team total could be a good angle.

Both of these sides have the ability to score for days. Leipzig are aggressive and clinical against any side, and Man United should have trouble keeping them off the score sheet.

Man United really should as well with the elite talent they have up front. I also like the Red Bulls at Pk +125. I think they are playing better overall, have the better manager, and see a draw or win for Leipzig at Old Trafford.

Picks: RB Leipzig TT Over 1.5 +150, RB Leipzig Pk +125

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