Wednesday Euro 2020 Betting Picks, Predictions: Our Favorite Bets for Spain vs. Slovakia, Portugal vs. France & More (June 23)
Angel Martinez – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images. Pictured: France star Kylian Mbappé.
Four more countries lock up their spots in the Euro 2020 knockout stage Wednesday, with Group E and Group F closing out the opening round.
At the end of the day’s contests, we’ll have the final 16 teams — the top two finishers from the six groups, plus four third-place nations — heading to the elimination part of the European showcase event.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.
Handicappers BJ Cunningham, Jeremy Pond, Matthew Trebby and Anthony Dabbundo dish out their best bets, with selections coming from three of the contests. Let’s take a look at their top picks and see where they’re finding value in these confrontations.
Wednesday’s Best Bets
|ANALYST||PICK | ODDS||BEST BOOK|
|BJ Cunningham||Spain -2 (+110) vs. Slovakia||DraftKings|
|Jeremy Pond||Germany (+100) To Win Group F||DraftKings|
|Matthew Trebby||France ML (+120) vs. Portugal||BetMGM|
|Anthony Dabbundo||Portugal vs. France: Both Teams To Score — No (-120)||DraftKings|
Odds as of Tuesday evening.
BJ Cunningham: Spain -2 (+110) vs. Slovakia
- Odds available at DraftKings
Spain has been the unluckiest team of the tournament so far. Through its their two matches, the Spaniards have controlled more than 75% of possession and racked up 27 shots, 10 of which have been on target. Defensively, they’ve only allowed their opponents to get off eight shots.
Spain has also created 6.06 expected goals, which is the most of any team through their first two matches and have only one goal and two draws to show for their effort.
Now, the Spaniards face a side in Slovakia that had the worst xG differential coming into the tournament. The Slovaks have been totally underwhelming, allowing 3.76 xG through their first two games, while creating 1.17 xG so far.
Also, let’s not forget Slovakia just needs a draw and it will be guaranteed at least third place in the group, so I think this will be a match where Spain might have 80% possession of the ball and at least three expected goals created, so the question is if can they finish their chances.
Additionally, for Spain to win this group it needs Poland to beat Sweden. Or if that contest ends in a draw, it would need to beat Slovakia by two or more goals to have a better goal differential than Sweden.
So, I love Spain covering a spread of -2 and would play anything at plus money.
Jeremy Pond: Germany (+100) To Win Group F
- Odds available at DraftKings
Unlike some of my other colleagues, I wasn’t high on Germany in any way, shape or form entering this tournament. I projected the Germans to finish third in the ultra-tough Group F, but that’s extremely unlikely to happen barring their handed an upset defeat at the hands of lowly Hungary.
So, I’m left with an attempt to save face and will take a swing on Germany to actually with Group F and reach the knockout round. The nation is pretty much even on the odds with France at all sportsbooks to win the group, which is kind of surprising considering I thought for sure France would be slightly favored despite having to play the stronger opponent in Portugal.
Germany put in a lackluster performance against France in its opening loss, but rebounded with one of the most complete offensive performances of the tournament so far in the rout of Portugal.
Obviously, I’m going to need a little help from Portugal to either beat or draw with France and hope Germany cruised to what should be an easy win, but I’m happy to jump on this play at +100 odds via DraftKings as my top selection.
Matthew Trebby: France ML (+120) vs. Portugal
- Odds available at BetMGM
I think Portugal is pretty overrated. It has won just two of its last eight group-stage games in major tournaments, a period in which the team has had many of the same players on its roster.
This is a huge spot for the Portuguese, one in which they need at least a point against the reigning world champions. However, France, aside from conceding a soft counter-attacking goal against Hungary, has looked in control.
Against Germany, the French got their early goal and then hunkered in to soak up a lot of pressure. That’ll be the ideal plan here as well.
Based on what we’ve seen from Bruno Fernandes over Portugal’s first two games, I expect he might be benched for this key matchup. The Manchester United star has been invisible, which has been the case for him dating back to the Europa League final against Villarreal.
This is what France is built to do. Les Bleus get important wins against a talented opponent that’s nowhere near the unit they are. At a plus number, I’ll back them to frustrate the Portuguese attack and get the three points that will see them finish atop Group F standings.
Anthony Dabbundo: Portugal vs. France — Both Teams To Score: No (-120)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Portugal and France are possession-averse sides that prefer to defend and counter instead of having the ball, and being forced to break down the opponent.
Both showed some vulnerabilities in their second group match, but this pick is all about game theory. France and Portugal don’t need to win this game, with the French already advancing and the Portuguese only needing to avoid a bad loss to advance to the knockout round.
If Portugal falls behind early, it will be in third place either way and a draw is basically the same as a 1-0 or 2-0 loss in that the nation will finish third in the group unless Hungary somehow upsets Germany. Because both defenses will be difficult to break down with leads, this game could die after the first goal.
While France did allow a goal to Hungary, its defense has allowed the third-fewest expected goals in the entire tournament, so I’m expecting it to continue to be defensively stout in this contest.
Squad rotation could become more important than chasing a result in the second half, and for that reason, I like No on the Both Teams To Score prop play in this matchup.