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MLS Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Toronto FC vs. New York City FC, Plus Two Bonus Plays (Wednesday, Oct. 28)

Credit:

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC captain Michael Bradley, left, and his teammates.

  • Toronto FC hosts New York City FC on Tuesday in a key Eastern Conference match.
  • The Reds are coming off a brutal 5-0 loss against Philadelphia over the weekend, finding themselves tied on points with Union in the standings.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and gives his top plays.

Toronto FC vs. NYCFC Odds

Toronto FC Odds +185 [BET NOW]
NYCFC Odds +135 [BET NOW]
Draw +245 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+120) [BET NOW]
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV MLS Live on ESPN+/TSN

Odds as of Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.


Another huge midweek card hits Major League Soccer on Wednesday, headlined by a marquee affair between rivals Toronto FC and New York City FC in their crucial Eastern Conference showdown.

Toronto enters the match on the heels of its worst showing of the entire campaign — and easily one of their poorest display in years — after Saturday’s stunning, 5-0 road loss against the Philadelphia Union.

Toronto FC, which has been beset by injuries galore, could not get anything going from the opening whistle and were thoroughly defeated by a talented Philadelphia side, which leapfrogged the club into first place via the tiebreaker.

Striker Jozy Altidore, the 2018 MLS Cup MVP, and rising talent Ayo Akinola, missed the match with injuries for the Reds, who were outshot by a ridiculous 27-3 margin (12-1 gap via shots on goal) in defeat.

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC strikers Jozy Altidore, left, and Ayo Akinola.

On the other side, NYCFC halted its three-game losing skid with a convincing 3-1 victory over the Montreal Impact at Yankee Stadium. The Cityzens scored three times inside an 18-minute stretch to capture the win.

The win put NYCFC just two points behind Orlando City FC in the race for fourth place in the conference standings. The Top 4 teams at the end of the regular season secure home playoff matches to start the postseason, hence the importance of finishing in that quartet.

This match marks the third time these sides will be meeting this season, with Toronto FC earning 1-0 victories in the last two tilts. However, the Reds suffered a 3-1 setback against the Cityzens back in July at the MLS is Back Tournament in Orlando, which ended their run at the competition.

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When comparing the common data and statistics between these clubs, they’re closer than what you might have expected.

Toronto FC has amassed the conference’s most impressive numbers, leading in all major categories. The Reds sit on an absurd 26.7 expected goals for and 10.7 xGA this season, which gives the club an +16.7 xGDiff and +0.63 xGDiff/90 minutes. The xGA, xGDiff and xGDiff/90 are second overall in the entire league, only trailing defending MLS Cup champion Seattle.

 

In contrast, NYCFC sits on an impressive 26.6 expected goals and decent 21.7 expected goals against for a +4.9 xGDiff, along with a +0.29 xGDiff/90 minutes. The Cityzens’ xG are just a percentage point behind the Reds, with its xGDiff coming in at fourth in the conference.

Betting Analysis

Everything has me pointed toward the Big Apple visitors. The Cityzens are playing better and enter this fixture in much better health than its hosts.

Toronto FC have generated little to no offense sans Altidore and Akinola, which was particularly evident in that drubbing against Philadelphia. With NYCFC clearly focused on shutting down Alejandro Pozuelo in the middle of the park, I don’t know where Toronto FC can turn for offensive answers.

Add in the fact NYCFC as strong as any MLS side in its defensive third of the pitch, and you have the visitors in a prime spot to scratch out a result. That said, I am backing NYCFC on the Draw No Bet line and to score the first goal.

I will also try to find someone offering it at +0.5 as well. As of publication, DraftKings had not posted its MLS odds for the day, so keep an eye on it for that key number since I believe the worst NYCFC does is settle for a draw.

The Bets: NYCFC Draw No Bet (-130); First Team To Score — NYCFC (-108)

BONUS PLAYS

  • Orlando City (-150) over Atlanta United: The MLS is Back Tournament runner-up, which is unbeaten in 12 of its last 13 matches, has NYCFC breathing down its neck for the coveted fourth playoff spot. Atlanta is dire straits, sitting two points below the playoff cut line, and is simply not that good. Play the host to snatch all three points at Exploria Stadium.
  • Portland (-120) over LA Galaxy & Total Under 3.5 Goals (-135): The Timbers, who are unbeaten in five of their last six matches, need all three points in this spot to keep pace with Western Conference leader Seattle. On the other side, things could not be going worse for Los Angeles, which has lost seven of its last eight matches. Back Portland to get the win at Providence Park. I would also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the number, despite the fact they’ve combined for 15 goals in their last two confrontations.

[Bet on the TFC-RBNY, Orlando City-Atlanta and Portland- LA Galaxy matches now at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.]

Link your PointsBet and Action accounts so your Major League Soccer bets automatically sync over to the app.

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