Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion EPL Odds & Picks: Back Cityzens in Blowout (Jan. 13)

Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion EPL Odds & Picks: Back Cityzens in Blowout (Jan. 13) article feature image
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Matt McNulty – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City star Raheem Sterling.

  • Manchester City will take on Brighton at 1 p.m. ET in Wednesday Premier League soccer action.
  • These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and Jeremy Pond explains the two bets offering value in today's matchup.

Manchester City vs. Brighton Odds

Manchester City Odds -560 [BET NOW]
Brighton Odds +1500 [BET NOW]
Draw +650 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-150) [BET NOW]
Day | Time Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds updated as of Tuesday at 1 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Clubs going in completely opposite directions go at it Wednesday when Manchester City hosts Brighton & Hove Albion in Premier League action.

The Cityzens, unbeaten in their last 13 matches across all competitions, have won six on the bounce entering this affair. Manchester City is sitting in fifth place on the table, just four points behind defending champion Liverpool and Manchester United.

On the other side, the Seagulls are flirting with relegation disaster at the moment, as their brutal run of form continues to haunt them. Brighton is winless in its last eight league fixtures, which has it stuck in 17th place and only three points clear of the location it doesn’t want to be.

Needless to say, both sides need a positive result for their own reasons. Let’s take a look at what might be on deck for these sides.

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Manchester City

Manager Pep Guardiola has to be elated with the way his group has been playing heading into this meeting. The Cityzens have always been a team known for its scoring prowess, but it has been the defense that has been turning heads around the league.

Manchester City has allowed just three goals in its last 13 games across all competitions, including 10 shutouts during that beautiful stretch of games.

However, the Cityzens are dealing with some minor health issues, which is going to shake things up at the Etihad. Sergio Aguero will miss out due to contract-tracing issues linked to COVID-19, plus Raheem Sterling could be a scratch after missing Sunday’s 3-0 win over Birmingham City in FA Cup action.

If you peruse Manchester City’s overall numbers, they tell the tale of a club that should be favored to finish top of the table.

The Cityzens sit on 25.5 expected goals and stellar 13.1 expected goals against, generating a brilliant +12.4 xGDiff and +0.82 xGDiff/90 minutes. Manchester City leads all 20 teams in xGDiff/90 and only trails Liverpool at +13.1 in the xGDiff category.

Bottom line, Manchester City is putting in solid shifts on a daily basis at both ends of the park. And needless to say, it will be a tough side to pick any points off in the second half of the campaign.

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Brighton

Life for the Seagulls could not be going much worse at the moment in England’s top flight.

Manager Graham Potter and his lads did secure a long overdue “positive” result last time out, though, it did come via a shootout win over League Two outfit Newport County in Sunday’s third-round FA Cup match.

That victory was actually Brighton’s first since a 2-1 triumph over Aston Villa back on Nov. 21 at Villa Park.

Most recently, the Seagulls have been settling for draws galore in league play. They have four stalemates in their last six matches, with the latest coming via a wild, 3-3 tie with Wolves.

When comparing the advanced metrics with Manchester City, Brighton obviously trails in all four categories. However, its numbers simply do not reflect a club sitting frighteningly close to the regelation zone.

The Seagulls sit on a respectable 23.6 expected goals and solid 18.2 expected goals against, generating in a +5.4 xGDiff and +0.32 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Brighton’s xGA surprisingly ranks fourth overall, plus its xGDiff actually is sixth in the entire league.

I feel like I’m beating the same drum over and over, but the results simply do not match the numbers for a club that continually leaves me perplexed.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

You have one club going toward the top of the table and another clinging to life above the league cellar. For me, that’s all I needed to focus on when it came to handicapping this confrontation.

That said, I will back Manchester City to cover the number on the alternative spread line of -1.75 at a fair price. The Cityzens have been just too good as of late, which tells me they should have no issue dispatching an opponent that can’t seem to find any sort of momentum.

I will also play the total to stay under the number as well. The loss of Aguero, plus the potential absence of Sterling, should take this high-powered offense down a notch and give Brighton more of a fighting chance to keep it close.

Statistically, there have been fewer than three goals in five of Manchester City’s last six home league matches. Add in the fact there have been three goals or fewer in 11 of Brighton’s last 13 league games, and I like my chance of hitting this wager.

Picks: Manchester City -1.75 (-148) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-150)

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