West Ham vs Arsenal Odds, Pick: Value is With Over/Under

West Ham vs Arsenal Odds, Pick: Value is With Over/Under article feature image

Andrew Kearns/Getty. Pictured: Martin Odegaard.

West Ham vs Arsenal Odds

Sun, Apr. 16
9 a.m. ET
USA Network

West Ham Odds


Arsenal Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-120 / +100)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-115 / -115)
Odds via PointsBet. Get the latest soccer odds here.

League-leader Arsenal will look to return to winning ways when they play guest to West Ham on Sunday morning in the London derby.

The Gunners are coming from a 2-2 draw against Liverpool at Anfield last weekend. It was the first time they have failed to secure all three points in a league match since the middle of February, when they fell 3-1 to their title contenders Manchester City.

Meanwhile, the Hammers are dealing with their own pressure. West Ham sit just three points above the relegation line, thanks to a tough-fought victory over Fulham last match day. They carried their resilience into their Europa League match, earning a 1-1 road draw against Gent in their quarter-final series.

Will the young Arsenal side be able to recover from their slight title run hiccup, or will West Ham turn this two-game unbeaten streak into a proper run of form and knock off their local rival?

West Ham Are a Strong Home Side

West Ham are a bottom-of-the-table team this season, but they are significantly better in front of their home crowd. 21 of their 30 points have come while playing at London Stadium.

It's not just the overall play that improves with manager David Moyes' men when they are home, but they also have better luck. The Hammers have scored just eight road goals this season despite accumulating 15.7 xG. However, at home they have scored 19 goals to 21.4 xG.

Even though Moyes gets better production in front of goal from his frontmen at home, they still struggle to keep the opposition from scoring. West Ham have conceded 19 home goals, which is tied for fifth-worst this season.

Moyes should feel better about his chances of slowing down Arsenal this weekend, though. Center back Kurt Zouma along with midfielders Tomas Soucek and Lucas Paqueta will be available.

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Arsenal Still Control Their Title Fate

With a game against Manchester City to come later this month, Arsenal still control their own destiny with nine matches to go.

The Gunners' offense is undoubtedly capable of handling business through the rest of the season, being shut out just twice in the league and scoring 66 non-penalty goals. That number is tied for first with City.

However, it is their defense that has been showing cracks lately. Since the new year, they have allowed 20 goals in 19 all-competition matches. They have been fortunate that the number isn't higher. In their 2-2 draw to Liverpool, they allowed 3.9 xG, raising their 2023 total to 23.21 xG.

Unfortunately for manager Mikal Arteta, he will likely have to run back out the same defense that was on the field last week as he confirmed that starting center-back William Saliba, who has been out since mid-March, is still suffering from a back injury and right back Takehiro Tomiyasu is rehabbing a knee problem.

West Ham vs Arsenal Pick

Not one goal, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven…

Alright, maybe not that many goals, but shout out to LeBron and the NBA playoffs starting this weekend.

Anyway, if you failed to pick it up, I expect scoring in this matchup, and I like the total over 2.5. Arsenal are struggling to keep teams out of the net, and West Ham have scored at least once in all seven of their last outings.

Even if the Hammers' scoring form slips on Sunday, I believe Arsenal can exceed this number on their own. The Gunners average 2.4 goals a game this season and have scored three or more goals in five of their last seven league matches.

The last time these two teams met this season back in December, and they combined for four goals with Arsenal winning 3-1. I expect a similar result on Sunday.

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-120)

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