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West Ham United vs Spurs EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction

West Ham United vs Spurs EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image

Tottenham Hotspur FC/Tottenham Hotspur FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham star Harry Kane, left, celebrates a goal with Richarlison.

West Ham vs. Spurs Odds

West Ham Odds+240
Spurs Odds-105
Over/Under2.5 (-120 / +100)
Day | TimeWednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
How To WatchPeacock Premium
Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

West Ham United picked up its first Premier League points this season with an away victory at Aston Villa this past Sunday, thanks to a deflected goal from Pablo Fornals. Now, the Hammers return home Wednesday to host unbeaten Tottenham at London Stadium.

Spurs have three wins and a draw to begin the season, but have been inconsistent in their performances. Whether it was a lackluster first half at home against Wolves, conceding more than one expected goal to Nottingham Forest or needing a late goal to steal a point at Chelsea, the 10 earned points from 12 in total have flattered Tottenham given the performances.

The Hammers have only scored one goal at this point, but this is a good buy low on their attack that faces a defense that has over-performed to this point

West Ham United

Despite my general pessimism on West Ham entering the season, the club is clearly better than the 16th-best EPL team based on talent and recent history.

One source of bad luck for the Hammers in attack has been opposing goalkeepers. It has only been four matches, but they've had more post-shot xG saved than any team in the league. Needless to say, thats not going to continue the rest of the season.

Manager David Moyes opted to play a more defensive back three against Aston Villa and I'd expect a similar approach to match here. It's more conservative from the Hammers, but the attacking talent of Fornals, Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio should produce more going forward. Antonio and Bowen have averaged a combined 0.27 xG per 90 minutes after producing 0.70 xG per 90 minutes last season in total.

West Ham doesn't have a defense that's going to push up really high and leave Tottenham space in behind. The club might have the better midfield duo and could control some patterns of possession.

By The Numbers

  • 3.58 — It's true that West Ham has scored just one league goal, but a lot of that has come down to variance as the attack has produced more than this number of xG this season.
  • 9th — West Ham didn't have a stellar defense by any stretch, but it was ranked highest in preventing big scoring chances last season.
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Manager Antonio Conte has shown he's more than comfortable letting the opponent have the ball in non-dangerous positions. He's fine conceding a bunch of low-xG chances that have very low probability of getting past a goalkeeper of Hugo Lloris' shot-stopping quality.

That hasn't really been the case for Spurs in the last three matches, though. Wolves and Nottingham Forest weren't able to take advantage of their opportunities to punish Spurs' inconsistent midfield, defensive performances, However, West Ham is a much more effective direct attacking side than either of Tottenham's last two opponents.

The visitors conceded 1.72 expected threat — a metric that tallies possession in dangerous areas — to newly promoted Nottingham Forest last time out. The match before, Wolves had 1.05 xT and 0.8 xG overall. The defense has struggled mightily with ball progression, given the mediocre passing ability of Davinson Sanchez, Eric Dier and Ben Davies in general.

West Ham isn't going to press high and cause that many issues for Spurs in possession, but Conte's squad has shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks that a better team would have exploited.

By The Numbers

  • -0.01 — Spurs have been excellent front runners because of how they enable themselves to set up in a countering approach. However, they've been league average with this xGDiff per 90 minutes in the 179 minutes played at a neutral-game state.
  • 45 — Tottenham has allowed the fourth-most passes into its own penalty area through four matches.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

My projections make Tottenham a +112 moneyline road favorite, which is pretty close to the overall market. That being said, this is a great buy-low, sell-high spot given the excellent start to the new season from Spurs and the poor one from West Ham.

The Hammers were prime regression candidates entering the new campaign, but the market is now too low on them and hopping in at home. I'd bet West Ham getting +0.5 goals at -120 or better via the Asian Handicap numbers.

The Pick: West Ham +0.5 (-120 or better)

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