West Ham vs Leeds United Odds, Pick: Premier League Preview

West Ham vs Leeds United Odds, Pick: Premier League Preview article feature image

Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Allardyce (in suit).

West Ham vs Leeds United Odds

Sun, May 21
8:30 a.m. ET
USA Network

West Ham Odds


Leeds United Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-125/ +100)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-163/ +120)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Leeds United will be searching for all three points on Sunday to boost their Premier League survival odds when they visit a West Ham side that is virtually secure entering the final two weekends.

The Peacocks are winless over their last seven while others around them have picked up points, resulting in their slide into the bottom three and the appointment of yet another new manager in Sam Allardyce. They began the weekend in 18th and a point back of Everton. They could see their fate sealed if they fail to defeat West Ham on Sunday combined with an Everton win and a Nottingham Forest point or more on Saturday.

As for the Hammers, they technically need a point to ensure their safety after a disappointing season that may bring the end of the David Moyes managerial era. But in actuality, it would take a string of improbable results to see them even flirt with danger on the final day.

These sides previously drew 2-2 in both teams' first fixture of 2023.

West Ham

It's interesting to consider what might have been for the Irons in the league without also managing a deep run in the UEFA Europa Conference League.

West Ham will play Fiorentina in the final of that competition after wrapping up an aggregate 3-1 semifinal win over AZ Alkmaar on Thursday — a 1-0 away victory that made headlines because of some unfortunate fan clashes.

Pablo Fournals' Leg 2 winner in second-half stoppage time gave the Hammers some added satisfaction, but in truth, Alkmaar rarely looked like scoring.

The Hammers' overall metrics in the EPL suggest they should be performing better. If expected-goal (xG) difference aligned with overall results, they'd be 11th in the table and even further out of danger.

But there are some suggestions they have shut down in the league since an important win over Bournemouth. The truth is murkier. Yes, they've played to a -1.3 xG difference per 90 minutes while losing four out of five Premiership fixtures. But they've also had a brutal schedule, with all five of those games against teams higher in the table, including four against the top six.

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Leeds United

In comparative terms to previous results, you could say Jesse Marsch's dismissal in early February brought Leeds a small new-manager bounce under Javi Gracia.

It's too early to judge the impact of yet another new hire in Allardyce given the quality of opposition in his first two games in charge: a 2-1 loss at Manchester City and a 2-2 draw home to Newcastle United.

But the defensive performances were improved following a five-game stretch in which Leeds conceded 18 goals.

That's not to say all their problems at the back are suddenly solved. The loss of American defensive midfielder Tyler Adams to a season-ending injury in March has certainly been a contributing factor. And their league-worst 71 goals allowed and second-worst 62.9 xG allowed suggest a deficient roster more than anything tactical.

A win at West Ham would be just Leeds' third away this league campaign, but it's also one place where the analytic numbers suggest they might be due for a good result. Their -11.1 xG difference away, while certainly not good, is better than three teams that have at least four away league victories.

West Ham vs Leeds United Pick

Overall season numbers suggest West Ham is the clear moneyline play. The circumstances, however, are wonky.

Not only do you have a home side that will probably rotate a sizable chunk of its roster, but you have an away team with a manager who is the tactical antithesis of what they have been most of the previous several years.

Leeds under Marsch, and Marcelo Bielsa before him, were all pressure and transition all the time — albeit in different ways. Under Allardyce, they are far more likely to focus on shape and compactness.

Perhaps this opens up an opportunity on the total. Yes, Leeds' defending has been poor all season, and Allardyce can't play fullback. But the current odds reflect an assessment of Leeds based on who they've been the whole season rather than who they are likely to be now.

Further, there's plenty of evidence West Ham are vulnerable to being contained by more conventional relegation-fighting tactics. Moyes' teams are always a little more comfortable without the ball, and in games where they've been asked to create the game, they haven't always done so.

Betting the total under 2.5 goals has cashed in six of the Irons' eight home matches against bottom-half teams. It's available at better than even money because of who Leeds have been rather than who they will try to be under Allardyce. I think you have to take it.

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