Bundesliga: Wolfsburg vs. Frankfurt Odds, Picks and Predictions (Saturday, May 30)
Arne Dedert/Pool via Getty Images. Pictured: Timothy Chandler
- Wolfsburg is a -110 favorite over Frankfurt in their Bundesliga match on Saturday morning.
- Wolfsburg has one of Germany's best defenses, so does a play on the Over/Under make sense?
- Michael Leboff previews Wolfsburg vs. Frankfurt:
Frankfurt at Wolfsburg Odds
|Time||Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET|
Eintracht Frankfurt has been hard done by this season. Their statistical profile tells the story of a team that should be fighting for a Europa League spot, but their actual results put them in 14th place and in the thick of a relegation scrap.
According to expected goals, Frankfurt should have a goal differential of +4 but in reality it sits at -8, which tells you that Die Adler have probably been a bit unfortunate through 27 matches this season. Either way, it’s a fall from grace for the team from “Mainhattan” as last season saw them make a run all the way to the Europa League semifinals.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Wolfsburg’s results this season have been markedly better than their opponent’s, but Die Wolfe also have been unfortunate. Only two teams (RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich) have allowed fewer expected goals against this season and Wolfsburg’s +6 goal differential should be closer to +12 according to xG.
Despite decent defensive metrics, Frankfurt matches typically see plenty of balls hit the onion bag. Die Adler matches average 3.56 goals per match, which is the fifth-highest mark in the Bundesliga.
Wolfsburg, on the other hand, feel most comfortable in low-event contests. Die Wolfe averages 2.64 total goals per match, the fewest in the Bundesliga, and their 2.72 total expected goals per match suggests that those results hold water.
A three-game sample size isn’t nearly deep enough to draw any conclusions from, but Wolfsburg is the better form side in this showdown. Oliver Glasner’s side have won two their three games since play resumed and their lone loss was a closer-than-it-looked defeat to Borussia Dortmund. Die Wolfe should be flying off a 4-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday.
Frankfurt have not fought their way out of the relegation trenches just yet. Die Adler have taken just one of nine points since the league returned, though they did come back from a two-goal deficit with 10 minutes to earn a well-deserved draw against Freiburg on Saturday.
Wolfsburg’s defensive metrics certainly jump off the page, but Frankfurt’s backline can also do a job. Despite giving up 1.91 goals per match, Die Adler only concede 1.51 xG per game. Throw in Wolfsburg’s 1.16 xG allowed per match and it’s easy to see a path where this contest turns into a rock fight, which will suit both clubs since Wolfsburg does it best work in slugfests and Frankfurt won’t want to take any unnecessary risks since its trying to collect any points possible to avoid being dragged further into a relegation fight.
The Under 2.5 at +120 and the Draw at +270 certainly stick out to me in this match, but if you want to go hunting for a big price, having a flutter on the game to end 0-0 at 13-1 seems like a great way to spend a Saturday morning.
The Bets: Draw +270; Under 2.5 (+120) or Game to end 0-0 (+1300)
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