Wolves vs Brentford Odds, Prediction | FA Cup Match Preview
Jack Thomas/Getty. Pictured: Matheus Cunha.
Wolves vs Brentford Odds
| Wolves Odds | -110 |
| Brentford Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Wolves host Brentford in an FA Cup third round replay on Tuesday after the sides tied 1-1 in West London back at the start of the month.
The hosts came from a goal and a man down to force the replay, and after Tommy Doyle's thunderbolt equalizer they looked the more likely team to find a winner inside of the regular time.
That was perhaps indicative of both teams' recent form. Wolves had won three in a row before their draw at Brentford, while the Bees had been losers of five straight.
Both teams were idle last weekend, with the match day 21 slate split across two match weekends as part of the Premier League winter break.
Here is my Brentford vs Wolves prediction.
Wolves
Wolves have successfully made the Molineaux a fortress in their first season under Gary O'Neil. Only Liverpool and Brighton have emerged victorious among the visiting clubs to pay a visit this campaign. It's now eight consecutive home games — all in the league — in which the Midlanders have earned at least a share of the spoils.
But nearly all of those eight unbeaten results were narrow ones — with only a 3-0 win over Everton at the end of December decided by more than zero or one goal.
And O'Neil's squad are missing several key contributors. Leading scorer Hwang Hee-Chan is at the Asia Cup and Mario Lamina is away for personal reasons, and that duo — which also missed the first match of this cup tie — has combined for 17 Premier League goal contributions. Joao Gomes will be serving the first of his three-match ban following his ninth-minute red card in the previous game at Wolves.
In better news, Pedro Neto could return to the Wolves starting XI for the first time since late October due to a hamstring injury. He's appeared in his side's last two games off the bench, going 35 minutes and helping Wolves claw back to a 1-1 draw in the first Cup match against Brentford.
Brentford
Tuesday's match comes fractionally too soon for 2022 Brentford scoring leader Ivan Toney, whose eight-month suspension related to gambling activity will expire a day after the replay.
Compounding that is the fact Brentford will also be missing its second- and third-best scorers. Bryan Mbuemo remains sidelined with an ankle issue, and Yoanne Wissa is at the African Cup of Nations. That leaves Neal Maupay as the primary striking threat after he scored the opener in the opener in this cup tie.
That's only a small sampling of a lengthy absentee list that has more or less corresponded with Brentford's recent swoon, with no immediate relief in sight.
One oddity about Brentford's recent slide is that it has come despite relatively competent production in front of goal. They've scored one goal each in all but one match during their six-match winless run.
Wolves vs Brentford
Prediction
Even with their absences, you have to like Wolves in this position. They're in a better league position and therefore would probably be more welcoming of a deeper cup run. And while they have their own absences, those aren't as debilitating as what Brentford are dealing with.
But what Wolves haven't done all season is put distance between themselves and their opponents, even in games they end up winning. Combine that with Brentford's record of losing close matches — often despite scoring — and I think the play here is a bet on the home side to win by exactly one goal.
At some books, you'll be betting on a "margin of victory" market. Others call it a three-way handicap or a spread result wager.
At +275 odds and an implied 26.7% probability, it's a wager that has cashed in four of Wolves' 11 home games and four of Brentford's 10 away matches.
Pick: Draw +1, Three-Way handicap Wolves -1 (+275 via bet365)
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