Wolves vs Liverpool Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview
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Wolves vs Liverpool Odds
| Wolves Odds | +475 |
| Liverpool Odds | -200 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
Injury and suspension concerns remain for Liverpool coming out of the international break as the Reds kick off match week 5 in the Premier League with a tricky road trip to Wolves on Saturday.
Virgil van Dijk is suspended for one more match and Trent Alexander-Arnold is unlikely to be fit in the Liverpool back line. Even though Ibrahima Konate is expected to return to the defensive line, it'll be a makeshift defensive set up for Jurgen Klopp and the Reds, who already are showing defensive cracks in their early season underlying numbers.
The market has moved toward Wolves on Friday following the injury news, where Liverpool were as high as -250 on the three-way moneyline before moving down to -200. Wolves have outperformed many expectations entering this season, especially in attack. They've finished all four of their league matches with at least 1 xG created, which only happened in 12-of-38 league matches in 2022-23.
Gary O'Neil changed the tactical approach for Wolves and they're more dangerous in quick strike transition and relying less on the defensive possession under previous manager Julen Lopategui. Against this Liverpool side, Wolves are plenty live to score early.
Here is my Wolves vs Liverpool preview.
Wolves
Wolves have transitioned from a team that had a lot of possession and did absolutely nothing of value with the ball into a side that is quite good in transition. You can't overreact to what could just be a hot four games, but they rank ninth in total shots and second in big scoring chances created. They've played some relatively open defenses in matchups against Brighton, Manchester United and Everton, but they also rank 11th in expected threat and first in crosses completed into the box. It's not all quick strike attacks that are propelling their underlying numbers into the middle of the table.
Liverpool's choice to use the 2-3-5 system in build-up will leave plenty of opportunities for counterattacks. Wolves are as healthy as they've been all season with only one squad player on the injury report headed into Saturday.
The return of Pedro Neto to full fitness is one of the most important developments for Wolves. He was one of the best dribblers and ball progression players in the league prior to his ACL injury. He wasn't quite right last year, but he ranks inside the top 10 in the league in carries into the penalty area and final third this year. He's posted three assists already and has 0.68 xG + xA per 90.
A fully healthy Neto in good form combining with Matheus Cunha can be enough to form a functional attack if Cunha keeps up his current production. He struggled in his first season with the club but is at 0.49 xG per 90 thus far. Wolves had nowhere to go but up after last season's dreadful attacking output and some resurgent performances from Cunha and Neto have boosted their attack.
Liverpool
Liverpool's numbers are a bit skewed because the Reds have played a lot of their minutes down a man this season against Bournemouth and Newcastle. Despite that, the defense looks quite vulnerable in the current set up. Their defense ranks second in big scoring chances conceded, which has kept down the overall defensive xG numbers and goals allowed.
It feels like more good defensive fortune to not have conceded more big chances when you consider that this defense is 19th in crosses allowed, 10th in xThreat and 10th in box entries allowed and just 10th in high turnovers.
The Reds conceded a lot of low quality shots when down a man in those two matches so that does skew the numbers, but let's not forget that Bournemouth scored early and had multiple big chances in that match and even Newcastle easily could have gone up two or three if not for some great goalkeeping from Alisson.
As much as Alisson bails out the Reds' defense with his incredible shot stopping, the LFC back line will be tested on the road on Saturday, even more than it was against Aston Villa. As much as the personnel is important in the 2-3-5 build-up, the system inherently leaves room for wide transitions and crosses into the box. Wolves have excelled at both this year.
Wolves vs Liverpool
Pick & Prediction
Liverpool's defense away from home was bottom half in the league last year and there's nothing in the ball progression or pressing numbers to suggest the Reds will be much better at stopping opponents this year. With Wolves' rejuvenated attack, I'm backing them to score early against Liverpool.
I'd bet Wolves to score in the first half at +140 or better.
Pick: Wolves To Score First Half (+140 or better)
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