Wolves vs Nottingham Forest Prediction | Saturday Premier League Odds & Picks
Alex Davidson/Getty. Pictured: Anthony Elanga.
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Wolves Odds | -125 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers will look for their second back-to-back wins of the season on Saturday when they host a sliding Nottingham Forest side that could be playing for manager Steve Cooper's job.
Wolves eased to a 1-0 home win over Burnley Wednesday to improve to 18 points and nine above the relegation line while running their home unbeaten run to six games.
Forest are not nearly as comfortable, only four points above the drop zone after their fourth consecutive defeat, a 5-0 thrashing Wednesday at Fulham.
Wolves won last year's home fixture 1-0 before they played to a pair of 1-1 draws at the City Ground, the first in a Leagues Cup quarterfinal (which Forest won on penalties) and the second in the return league fixture.
Here is my Wolves vs Nottingham Forest prediction.
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Wolves
Wolves have been a somewhat more enterprising team under the guidance of former Bournemouth boss Gary O'Neil than in previous seasons with previous managers.
The Midlands side has found the net in all but one league meeting through 15 matches. And teams have combined to create an average of 3.0 xG per match. Last season, Wolves league matches averaged just 2.5 combined xG created.
But as sometimes happens with teams in the lower half who try to increase their attacking ambitions, Wolves can sputter against lower-table opposition who don't mind making the game ugly. Their xG difference per 90 minutes is -0.3 against sides in the bottom half of the table (not including Everton, who would be 10th without their 10-point deduction). That's only slightly worse than their -0.5 xGDiff per 90 against top-half sides (including Everton).
Perhaps even more worryingly, they've allowed opponents 1.6 xG per 90 minutes in those six games, a major reason they've only taken seven total points from those half-dozen fixtures.
Nottingham Forest
Forest's slide turned from frustrating to ugly in their 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Fulham on Wednesday night. But even while it was the Trees' worst performance this season, the outcome also was more harsh than the performance. While the Cottagers certainly deserved the victory, they also scored on every chance they took with a 0.14 xG value or higher.
Those numbers could convince Cooper to turn back to U.S. international Matt Turner in goal after he was dropped in favor of Odisseas Vlachomidos. Neither has performed well, but Vlachomidos is currently letting in nearly a goal more per 90 minutes than his post-shot xG totals over five games.
Cooper's decision to rotate Morgan Gibbs-White and Chris Wood and bring both off the bench also backfired, with Fulham already two goals to the good by the interval. With striker Taiwo Awoniyi still out with a long-term groin issue, it feels likely the other two attackers will return to the XI.
Whether it's enough to improve Forest's chances is a different matter. With the loss at Fulham, the Trees sank to 3-17-9 (W-L-D) in league matches since their promotion to the Premier League when Awoniyi either comes off the bench or doesn't play. They're 9-9-6 when he starts.
The biggest unknown here is whether Cooper's dressing room still believes in him. While the zombie-like effort at Craven Cottage was worrying, it was also an anomaly so far. So it feels like Saturday has the potential to be either a ferocious response or an ugly end.
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
Without Awoniyi, Forest profile more as a team fighting relegation than one aspiring to the middle of the table, i.e. exactly the kind of club that has given Wolves some trouble.
The tricky part about that analysis is the majority of those matches for Wolves have also come away from home. But their midweek win against Burnley — in which both teams failed to reach the 1.0 xG threshold — at least suggests the same might be true here.
Forest's numbers without Awoniyi are real, though. And they're a pretty big sample size at this point. So while I think oddsmakers are leaning a little too heavily toward Wolves, I've got to find a way to back Forest conservatively.
For me, it's parlaying a double-chance wager with a total coming in under 3.5. That wager has hit in half of Wolves' six games against bottom-half foes. And though Forest's away form is poor, Wolves will be the worst team they've visited.
You might also consider Forest +1 goal (-200 via BetRivers) as an unadventurous alternative since Wolves have yet to win by multiple goals this season.
Pick: Double chance – Forest or draw and under 3.5, same-game parlay (+143 via FanDuel)
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