2020 Australian Open ATP Day 3 Betting Picks & Odds: Can Tommy Paul Upset Grigor Dimitrov?

2020 Australian Open ATP Day 3 Betting Picks & Odds: Can Tommy Paul Upset Grigor Dimitrov? article feature image

Paul Kane/Getty Images. Pictured: Tommy Paul of the USA in Adelaide, Australia.

Wednesday features 16 of the 32 round two ATP singles matches. Still, since the tournament is played in Australia, the slate kicks off at 7 p.m. E.T. on Tuesday evening in North America — so you’ll need to get your bets in early.

Let’s examine some second-round bets in the Men’s singles draw.

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 Day Three ATP Bets

Yoshihito Nishioka (+149) vs. Daniel Evans | Over/Under: 38

  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Court 19
  • H2H: Nishioka leads 2-0

These two have eerily similar metrics, with an almost identical combined hold/break number over the past year.

Both played some excellent tennis to start the 2020 campaign in the ATP Cup — but Nishioka surprisingly withdrew after falling behind in the first set of a challenger match on Jan. 13.

As a result, the line for his first-round match against Laslo Djere was lower than it should have been, but he made relatively easy work of the Serbian.

Meanwhile, Evans fell behind two sets in the first round to MacKenzie McDonald — who was playing his second competitive match since May — but the Englishman lost just six games over the final three sets to secure the victory.

Evans has had success against lefties (12-11 career), but he is just 2-6 against them in the past year, and Nishioka’s unpredictable shot-making is challenging to gather tendencies on.

The over is probably a solid play here, but I would either make this match a pick’em at worst or have Nishioka as a slight favorite, and I cannot pass up obvious moneyline value on the Japanese No. 2.

Tommy Paul (+270) vs. Grigor Dimitrov | O/U: 38

  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Margaret Court Arena
  • H2H: First meeting

The numbers tell me that Tommy Paul is the right side here and that’s before I even account for the fact that Dimitrov has been dealing with blisters on his right hand.

Paul only played 10 tour matches in the past year. Still, it’s worth noting that he made significant strides on the challenger circuit in 2019 — improving his record from 21-14 (60%) to 27-5 (84.4%) overall, while winning an extra percentage of points (51.9% to 52.9%), and raising his combined hold/break number from 108.3 to 112.7.

The 22-year-old New Jersey native looks to be putting his potential together after methodically advancing to the semi-final in Adelaide (without dropping a set), and I think his improved forehand is up for the challenge against Dimitrov.

I split a unit between Paul’s moneyline and game spread (+5.5) and I think he’s worth betting down to +215.

Other Matches to Watch

The all-Italian parlay looks too good to be true, with Matteo Berrettini and Fabio Fognini bringing back plus-odds together. I project the pair to win at a combined rate of 62% — implied odds of -163 — and I would bet this parlay down to -110.

Guido Pella has performed better of late in Slams, but this is just his second time into the second round in Melbourne (first since 2016), and I pegged Gregoire Barrere as a potential breakout player in this tournament. I would bet the Frenchman down to +180.

Hubert Hurkacz stormed back down 2-0 on sets to eliminate qualifier Dennis Novak in the first round, while John Millman defeated an in-form Ugo Humbert. Both men are playing at a high level, and I’m expecting a grinding match with at least one tiebreak; I’ll take the over on games.

I think the matchup between Milos Raonic and Cristian Garin will also be a long one — with the Canadian’s big serve and the Chilean’s excellent return game leading to some 12 and 13 game sets. That looks like another solid over bet.

Marin Cilic is always a tough out, and especially in Australia – following up his 2018 finals appearance with a run to the fourth round last season. He also has a 4-1 record in the head to head against Benoit Paire, but the Frenchman remains in good form after an excellent 2019 campaign – and I think he’s bettable at +200 or better while playing at a more consistent level.

Phillip Kohlschreiber has a puncher’s chance against Stefanos Tsitsipas – who won both prior matchups in this head to head in 2018. The 15 year age gap favors the Greek in a long match, but the German is coming off of an impressive Challenger title in Canberra, and the fast surface here clicks well with his serve and forehand. His moneyline has value to +550, but it shouldn’t garner a substantial investment.

Bets (So Far) for January 21-22

Odds, especially live odds, swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for January 21.

  • Yoshihito Nishioka (+149, 1 unit)
  • Parlay (+105): Fabio Fognini / Matteo Berrettini (1 unit)
  • Gregoire Barrere (+230, 0.5 units)
  • Benoit Paire (+220, 0.5 units)
  • Tommy Paul (+270, 0.5 units)
  • Tommy Paul +5.5 Games (-110, 0.5 units)
  • Hubert Hurkacz / John Millman, Over 39 Games (-111, 0.5 units)
  • Cristian Garin / Milos Raonic, Over 39 Games (-105, 0.5 Units)
  • Philipp Kohlschreiber (+590, 0.25 units)

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