2021 Wimbledon Odds, Predictions, Picks: Bets for Federer vs. Norrie, Kyrgios vs. Auger-Aliassime, More (July 3)

2021 Wimbledon Odds, Predictions, Picks: Bets for Federer vs. Norrie, Kyrgios vs. Auger-Aliassime, More (July 3) article feature image
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Julian Finney/Getty Images. Pictured: Roger Federer.

  • A week of Wimbledon is nearly in the books, and some of the biggest names take the court on Saturday.
  • Kenny Ducey is focusing on three matches in particular, highlighted by Roger Federer facing off against Cam Norrie.
  • See how Ducey is betting that match along with two others below.

We’re already closing the book on the first week at Wimbledon, and Saturday promises to be a tremendous day of tennis with some of the biggest names in the sport taking the court in London.

I think some of those big names will have some trouble, and without further ado I’ll explain why.

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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Nick Kyrgios

In a match that’s so close to call, I’d normally side with the underdog, but I have a hard time seeing Nick Kyrgios winning.

It’s never fun to fade one of the most exciting talents in tennis, but the deck is going to be stacked against Kyrgios here. The time he’s spent on court should catch him here, playing a five-setter across two days followed by another match on Thursday and mixed doubles (half-kidding) on Friday.

The Aussie hasn’t played a tournament since the Australian Open in January, and admittedly has been on the couch playing Call of Duty in hopes of one day becoming a professional gamer. No, that’s not a joke.

I consider myself a huge fan of Nick, and as huge fans of him know, there are certain matches that scream trouble. This match, against a player who’s been working his behind off on the grass and rounding into form with Toni Nadal in his corner, is one of those.

Auger-Aliassime has cleaned up his errors significantly and seems to be playing with confidence — something that’s always been the key to his success. His overwhelming power should ask serious questions of Kyrgios’ fitness and movement, which has been compromised both by fatigue and a few slips on the grass in his matches.

I see Kyrgios getting worn down as this one goes along both physically and mentally. We haven’t seen him hit a wall with his focus, but that could happen here at the first sign of trouble.

Pick: Auger-Aliassime -136 (DraftKings)

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Marin Cilic vs. Daniil Medvedev

I’ve admittedly never been a big Marin Cilic fan, but it’s impossible not to be impressed with the way he’s playing lately. After a brutal finish to 2020 following the restart and some shakiness to begin 2021, he may just have developed into one of the most dangerous players on tour once again. He now gets to play on his favorite surface, where he’s 88-30 lifetime.

The Croat draws Daniil Medvedev here, who’s arguably just as good on grass but hasn’t played nearly as much. Both men have won titles this grass-court season, but if you want to factor in experience, Cilic has the upper-hand. He’s a former Grand Slam champion and 2017 Wimbledon finalist, and should have a mental edge over Medvedev, who has had his own trials and tribulations at Grand Slams.

As a guy who can rely on his serve so heavily at times, I think Cilic should have an easy time (relatively speaking) holding on to his serve here. He should win enough games, at the very least, to cash the over, taking a set off of Medvedev along the way. He’s one of the most in-form players at the moment, and should give the Russian a real battle.

It helps that their only meeting was decided by a thin margin, with Medvedev winning 6-4, 7-6 in a tight second-set breaker in Washington a couple of years ago. I don’t see this much between them.

Pick: Over 37.5 (PointsBet)

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Roger Federer vs. Cam Norrie

Cilic and Medvedev have had great seasons, but the year Cam Norrie has put together nearly equals them. He’s not only learned to play on the clay and grass, two surfaces he’s never been great on, but he’s been quietly dominant. It makes sense he could play on grass, at least, with his ridiculously flat backhand, and we’re seeing at Wimbledon just how effective his hardworking play style can be against some great competition.

A guy that’s toppled Dominc Thiem, Denis Shapovalov and nearly beaten Matteo Berrettini won’t be fazed here by playing an out-of-form Roger Federer. We’ve seen as far back as the 2019 U.S. Open what can happen to Federer when he’s pushed enough in rallies, and there’s going to be plenty of long, taxing points in this one with a grinding baseliner like Norrie.

As the only Brit remaining in the men’s draw, Norrie should have plenty of crowd support on Center Court as he plays on Saturday, and the close nature of this match should create for a wild atmosphere as it wears on. With Federer’s returning and movement still not where it needs to be against a guy who will move him all over the court, I see value in taking Norrie to keep things within reach and staking just a bit on him to win.

Pick: Norrie +4.5 Games (DraftKings)

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