Betting Breakdown: Federer-del Potro Indian Wells Final

Betting Breakdown: Federer-del Potro Indian Wells Final article feature image

OK, so there’s no buzzer beaters in tennis … but Roger Federer and Juan Martin del Potro — two of the most awe-inspiring tennis players on the planet — square off today (at 4 p.m. ET); so, put down the brackets temporarily (or find a spot with multiple TVs) and enjoy some top-drawer tennis today. I promise: you can dive right back into the madness after the match; basketball will still be playing.

What’s the best value bet in Sunday’s title match? Let’s take a look …

Sunday’s Daily Hitter

Match: Roger Federer vs. Juan Martín del Potro
Where: BNP Paribas Open | Indian Wells
When: 4 p.m. ET

It’s not often I find myself actively looking to oppose the Swiss Maestro — and World No. 1 — Roger Federer multiple times in one week. But this one has been the exception. I didn’t tell anyone (insert evil laugh), but I hoisted a fifth of a unit on Federico Delbonis last week in Roger’s first match of Indian Wells (at +2100). The scoreline doesn’t really show it, but that match was tight. And it easily could’ve gotten away from Roger, had Delbonis made the most of his set point there in the second set breaker.

Nevertheless, Roger survived and advanced (#MarchMadness). A couple rounds later, I tried taking Fed on with Hyeon Chung — after the Korean’s backhand-down-the-line against Tomas Berdych had me munching on my Aussie-Open-words — but Roger got through that one, too, after a tight first set. Yesterday, in the semifinals, things did not get any easier for Fed. As a -1429 favorite, Roger found himself down a set and a break — and then also a third set break — against Borna Coric, before digging in and surviving once more.

Today, I’m not sure Roger will be so lucky when he takes on del Potro, the World’s No. 7 player. Delpo has been in rampant form over the past month and has now won 10 consecutive matches — and is looking for his second consecutive title (after winning last week in Acapulco). It’s been a bit of an up and down week for Delpo, though. The Big Argentine looked great in his first two rounds (against Alex de Minaur and David Ferrer) before needing two deciders in his next two (against Leo Mayer and Philipp Kohlschreiber). But I think his semifinal slaughter of Milos Raonic yesterday will go a long way for his confidence — and also energy levels — heading into this one.

While Roger had to dig out a tough three-setter yesterday, where he was fighting for his tournament life, Delpo cruised, and I expect him to be the fresher player today. But, for me, this one will come down to which version of Roger we see. Roger has brought his B-game (or even C-game) all week and has still been good enough to make the final. Delpo, however, presents the type of player whose A-game can beat Roger’s B-game. Hell, Delpo has proven in years past that his A-game is powerful enough to beat Roger’s A-game.

DAILY HITTER: Juan Martín del Potro +245

For Tournament Preview backers …

If you backed our recommended play of Federer to win outright at +120 — you’ll have a hedge opportunity today. If you want to just let your Roger play ride and hedge your risk — by putting .41 units on Delpo (at +245) you’ll have a risk free-swing at Roger for .79 units. However, I think the more opportune move is to give yourself a free swing at Delpo (behind better odds). By putting one unit on Delpo, you’ll take home .2 units if Roger wins (and buy yourself a nice dinner) or 1.45 units on Delpo if he wins.

Photo via Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports