ATP Erste Bank Open Quarterfinal Odds and Picks: Back Sinner to Cover Spread (Oct. 29)
Credit: TPN, Getty. Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates at the 2021 US Open.
Four quarterfinal matches will be played on Friday’s slate of tennis at the Erste Bank Open, and each of them projects to be intriguing in different ways.
There are a number of value opportunities on the schedule that contain six seeded players and two competitors in red-hot form.
Read on to see how I’ll be betting the quarterfinals.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Matteo Berrettini (-260) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (+205)
8:00 a.m. ET
After qualifying for the year-end ATP Finals, Berrettini secured a solid comeback win against the in-form Nikoloz Basilashvili. He’ll have to face another powerful baseliner in Alcaraz on Friday.
Though Alcaraz put forth an impressive display of patience and consistency against Andy Murray on Wednesday, he’ll be facing a completely different style of player in Berrettini.
The Italian utilizes a much more powerful and impactful serve than the Brit, and he likes to end points quickly behind a massive forehand. Rallies in this match are likely to be far shorter than the marathon points we saw between Alcaraz and Murray.
While Berrettini has the advantage on serve, Alcaraz has the ability to be the aggressor in extended rallies. The 18-year-old should dominate in backhand to backhand scenarios, as Berrettini will be forced to rely on his slice backhand when pushed onto that wing.
In the event that Berrettini has an extended period of inconsistency with his first serve, he’ll be in serious danger. Alcaraz has shown that he’s capable of dealing with pressurized service games and back-and-forth matches, so I am comfortable trusting him at this price.
Alcaraz’s advantage on the ground is too large to see him as this heavy of an underdog, and he offers great value to open the day.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz +205 via DraftKings
Jannik Sinner (-220) vs. Casper Ruud (+170)
12:50 p.m. ET
There is no one on tour right now who looks more comfortable than Sinner. As we saw with Cameron Norrie on Thursday, runs of great form in tennis are susceptible to duds, but Sinner looks energized and eager to book a spot in Turin for the ATP finals.
Coming into the match, Ruud currently occupies the second-to-last spot in the race to Turin (Rafael Nadal will not be featured due to injury), and Sinner is the first player out. The duo’s quarterfinal matchup has massive implications for each of them in addition to Hubert Hurkacz, who currently holds the last Finals spot.
Ruud was thoroughly tested by Lorenzo Sonego on Thursday, sneaking by with a 6-4 third set, and he’ll be pushed even further by Sinner, who is one of the best indoor hard court players on tour.
The Norwegian number one has improved his hard court game to a great extent in 2021, but he’s running into a buzz saw in Sinner.
I’m almost never comfortable paying this type of juice, but there are spots to back Sinner with value.
If you can get him on a game spread of -2.5 or less, as you can at Caesars, he’s worth a play, even if you do have to concede a bit on the price.
Pick: Jannik Sinner -2.5 games -137 via Caesars Sportsbook