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ATP Newport & Bastad Odds, Picks, Predictions (July 12)

ATP Newport & Bastad Odds, Picks, Predictions (July 12) article feature image

Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Andy Murray.

Following Wimbledon, we get to see a mix of ATP tournaments, one on grass in Newport and another on clay in Bastad.

Both tournaments sit at the 250 level, so most top players opt out of these tournaments. Nonetheless, we still have some high-level matches on the horizon.

We will target a best bet at each tournament where I believe the most value lies for Tuesday’s slate.

Let’s dive in.

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Hugo Gaston (-128) vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili (+106)

6:20 a.m. ET

Beginning on the clay in Bastad, we are set to be entertained with a match of two extremely talented yet struggling opponents.

In ATP main draw matches this year, Basilashvili is a measly 12-20 and Gaston is not much better at 9-12. For two players who have a game that can trouble any level of player, they will be looking to press the reset button post-grass season.

Gaston plays a mightily tricky game filled with drop shots and highly unpredictable placements. With some of the softest touch on tour, opponents always need to be on their toes, ready to get to any obscure shot Gaston throws at them.

In complete contrast, Basilashvili plays a pure power game. Hitting the ball as hard as anyone on tour, he holds the baseline well and seems to be swinging at 100% regardless of the incoming ball.

I believe this disparity in styles will strongly favor the Georgian and cause the Frenchman all sorts of issues.

Gaston lacks power and Basilashvili will tee off on any shot he sees, especially the weaker second serve of the Frenchman.

Along with Basilashvili’s trend of holding the baseline, it will take a tremendous dropshot to cause him any sort of issue in getting to it. For Gaston to make that happen off of the Georgian’s heavy and fast groundstrokes seems unlikely.

I expect Basilashvili to overpower Gaston and not allow the usual cat-and-mouse points that Gaston plays to be created.

Pick: Basilashvili ML (+106 via FanDuel)

Andy Murray (-310) vs. Sam Querrey (+250)

Moving over to the grass in Newport, many grass specialists will look to tag on a few more points, especially after points were removed from the lone grass slam of Wimbledon this year.

Andy Murray was a force on the grass courts for a long time. With two titles at Wimbledon, he has hung with and beat the best of them. Using his remarkable defense, counterpunching and redirecting, Murray gives his opponents no breathing room and loves to use their pace to hurt the creator.

Likewise, Sam Querrey’s surface of choice is grass. He has produced incredible results on the surface, highlighted by a run to the Wimbledon semifinals in 2017.

However, he seems to be on his way out. Playing fewer and fewer tournaments as time goes on, the number of wins he picks up has followed the same trend.

Although he produced a solid run at Queen’s Club, his straight sets defeat to Ricardas Berankis at Wimbledon was mightily disappointing.

For someone who is playing infrequently and at a level much lower than their best, Murray is a nightmare of an opponent. He will force you into uncomfortable positions, make you hit the extra shot and keep the pressure on you at all times.

As Murray already owns the head-to-head edge at 7-2, I expect him to expand on that lead as he is still in much better form between these two off-peak opponents.

Trust Murray to make quick work of Querrey as his level in play shows no sign of revitalization.

Pick: Murray -3.5 Games (+102 via FanDuel)

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