Australian Open Odds, Predictions | Round 4 Match Previews, Featuring Tsitsipas vs Sinner
Andy Cheung/Getty. Pictured: Stefanos Tsitsipas.
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We are on to the fourth round in the Australian Open, and things are really starting to get interesting.
It feels that this is anyone's tournament, and two of the men we'll be looking into on Saturday are certainly dark horse contenders.
Read below for my analysis of the Australian Open odds and predictions.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Australian Open matches.
Australian Open Odds & Predictions
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-225) vs. Jannik Sinner (+180)
3 a.m. ET
For all intents and purposes, Stefanos Tsitsipas owns Jannik Sinner. The two have played five times, and the Greek has emerged the victor in four of those meetings. The only time they met on a hardcourt (or at a Grand Slam) took place at last year's Australian Open, where Tsitsipas mopped Sinner in three sets as the underdog.
I foresee another rough match for Sinner. The Italian entered the third round untested on the season and finally ran into a player who could play competent defense against him and limit unforced errors (at least for two sets!). The issue with Marton Fucsovics in that match was his lack of weapons, and eventually when given enough chances to be the aggressor, Sinner began to find the range on his massive groundstrokes.
Tsitsipas has a big boy game, pumping in one of the best serve and forehand combinations on tour. This kind of power and aggression has thrown the youngster for a loop at times in his career, and I think it will be difficult for him to get on the front foot.
I think back to the US Open match he played against Carlos Alcaraz, where if not for some baffling misses by the Spaniard, the Italian would have gone down meekly in three sets.
While it's always possible Tsitsipas can hand Sinner some gifts, I do think he will take the lead here and not look back. With that, I feel comfortable laying the games with the player who is simply better at this juncture.
Pick: Tsitsipas -3.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Sebastian Korda (-162) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (+138)
9:45 p.m. ET
Speaking of handing players some gifts, Hubert Hurkacz was the beneficiary of countless errors by the erratic Denis Shapovalov on Thursday night.
To me, Shapovalov was the better player in every set. He did serve for the first and looked poised to take the second late. Some lapses in focus and some disastrous misses eventually cost Shapovalov the match, and while Hurkacz's next opponent has had issues in his career playing a clean match, I don't think he'll be quite as lucky.
Sebastian Korda played absolutely mainline tennis against Daniil Medvedev, handling nerves and the disappointment of some squandered leads incredibly well. His raw power is something that could give Hurkacz some fits, considering the way Shapovalov was able to hit through him at times on Thursday, and with that I see him coming away the victor.
The level that Hurkacz is producing right now simply won't cut it, and I'm particularly worried about the Pole with the way he served on Thursday. He was broken a total of seven times and rarely dominated in that aspect. Without easy holds, this could become complicated for the World No. 11.
I'm not going to mess around with the game spread here, nor the set spread, but the moneyline is well within range. I feel good about Korda coming away with this one.
Pick: Korda ML (-162 via DraftKings)