Carlos Alcaraz vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds, Picks, Predictions: Where’s the Value in Miami Open?
TPN/Getty. Stefanos Tsitsipas hits a backhand at the Miami Open.
Alcaraz vs. Tsitsipas Odds
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
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Just about half a year ago, Stefanos Tsitsipas was a -500 favorite to beat 18-year old Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open. Now, at the Miami Open about seven months later, the rising star is a solid favorite to beat the world No. 5.
It’s not a big shock to see this line either, as Alcaraz has just two losses on the season with one of them coming to Rafa Nadal while Tsitsipas has dropped six matches. The Greek has played slightly more tennis, but the young Spaniard has been on a different level this year, showcasing why he’s one of the brightest talents the game has seen since Novak Djokovic and Nadal.
Alcaraz’s overall Elo Rating is already fifth-best across the ATP, and his hard court Elo is also fifth-best, both marks that are ahead of Tsitsipas at the moment.
The US Open meeting between the pair also represents their only match thus far, and if that was any indication, we’re in for a thriller in Miami. Of course, Alcaraz has elevated his game in rapid fashion since the summer, resulting in this newly revamped line, but Tsitsipas is still one of the best players in the world.
He put on a phenomenal performance against an in-form Alex de Minaur on Monday, winning 82% of his first serve points, 73% of his second serve points and limiting the Aussie to 64% and 57% on his own serve.
Alcaraz has been similarly solid on the week, as he has been all year, breaking Marin Cilic and Marton Fucsovics five times on 14 chances while conceding just four break points and losing none of them. The easy power on both wings, but particularly his forehand, has been evident, and it’s going to present a unique challenge to Tsitsipas.
The world No. 5 can struggle with timing in certain matches, and Alcaraz should be able to exploit that thanks to his positioning on the court, his incredibly fast racket speed and his world class ability at the net.
For Tsitsipas, the key will be taking the initiative in points as soon as possible and avoiding extended rallies. Alcaraz already has some of the best rally tolerance on tour, and when you combine that with his sheer speed, it’s going to be difficult for Tsitsipas to hit through Alcaraz from neutral or defensive positions.
Tsitsipas is at his best when he’s taking time away from the opponent, serving well and unleashing his forehand as his first groundstroke. Against de Minaur, he was able to execute that perfectly, but against Alcaraz, that will be a much greater challenge.
For me, this is an incredibly sharp line. I believe that Alcaraz is a favorite in this match, but not an overwhelming one. The 66.4% implied probability that is being assigned to him by this price seems almost perfect, with the idea that Alcaraz would win this match two out of every three times.
He’s simply the better player right now, with more tools at his disposal and elevated confidence to what Tsitsipas has. Nonetheless, Tsitsipas has played some solid tennis this week with Thomas Enqvist in his box, and if displays the level that he had against de Minaur, he can cause problems for Alcaraz.
I think the best route for this match would be to jump in live, as a single service hold to start the match for Tsitsipas would lower Alcaraz to around -150 or better, where the price is much more tolerable.
If you can get that number on Alcaraz without the teenager being down a break, I would jump on it, and if he does go down a single break in the first set, +120 or better is a fair number to get involved with.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz Live Based on Circumstances