Caroline Garcia vs. Ons Jabeur US Open Preview, Prediction: Garcia Will Fly Into Final (September 8)

Caroline Garcia vs. Ons Jabeur US Open Preview, Prediction: Garcia Will Fly Into Final (September 8) article feature image

Tim Clayton-Corbis, Frey/Getty. Pictured: Ons Jabeur and Caroline Garcia.

  • Caroline Garcia and Ons Jabeur are set to play for a spot in the US Open final.
  • David Gertler previews the match and offers his betting insights.
  • Read on for his prediction and best bet.

Garcia vs. Jabeur Odds

Garcia Odds-162
 Jabeur Odds+136
Time | How to Watch7 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch the US Open, click here.

After taking down Coco Gauff 6-3, 6-4 in the US Open quarterfinals, Caroline Garcia has won an incredible 13-straight matches.

Garcia hasn't lost a set all tournament, but her semifinal opponent, world No. 5 Ons Jabeur, will provide a very tough test in her next match.

Read on for my analysis below!

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Garcia Keeps On Winning

Garcia continued to excel against Gauff in the quarterfinals. Garcia won 78% of her first-serve points, the fourth time in five matches this tournament that the Frenchwoman has won at least 75% of her first serves.

The Frenchwoman put a lot of pressure on Gauff's serve, winning 36% of her first-serve return points and 73% of her second-serve returns. Garcia's ultra-aggressive returns also forced the American to go bigger on her second serve, leading to six double faults.

Garcia hit 24 winners compared to 22 unforced errors in the match.  She has hit more winners than unforced errors in each US Open match she's played thus far.

The Cincinnati champion was also strong at the net against Gauff, winning 13-of-16 net points. Garcia is a two-time doubles Slam champion, including at the French Open this season, so she understands how and when to move forward.

Garcia is now 18-9 on hard courts in 2022, having won the WTA 1000 title in Cincinnati in her previous tournament. Dating back to Cincinnati, the Frenchwoman has won 13 sets in a row.

Her game is based on her huge first serve, along with her heavy forehand. The ball explodes off of Garcia's forehand and she places the ball very well around the court, while (in recent weeks) not overhitting.

However, Garcia's backhand is also a threat, as she can play with controlled aggression from that wing, as well.

Jabeur Following Through With Season Successes

Ons Jabeur defeated Ajla Tomljanovic 6-4, 7-6(4) in the quarterfinals. Jabeur won 71% of her first-serve points, but she only put 40% of these serves into play. In addition, Jabeur won just 48% of her second serves and was broken four times.

She will need to improve on her first-serve percentage and protect her second serve better. She's now won under 50% of her second-serve points in eight of her last nine matches.

Jabeur was able to win 49% of her return points, however, including 66% on Tomljanovic's second serve. The Tunisian was able to break on five occasions.

She also won 18-of-24 points at the net and hit 29 winners versus 30 unforced errors. While 30 unforced errors across two sets is a lot, Jabeur was the one dominating play from the baseline.

This season, Jabeur has played near the top of her game. She is 43-13 this year across all surfaces and 15-8 on hard courts. The Tunisian made the Wimbledon final and is having the best season of her career.

In 2022, Jabeur has moved her opponents around the court, hitting into precise targets. The Tunisian has easy power on her forehand and she can  dictate from her backhand wing too.

Jabeur's variety is perhaps the most lethal part of her game, whether it be her perfect drop shots, cutting slices or her angled groundstrokes. She can have issues when rushed on the court, however.

Betting Value

Garcia is striking the ball incredibly well at the moment, particularly from the forehand wing.  The level of controlled aggression she's brought recently has completely overwhelmed opponent after opponent.

This is not a good matchup for Jabeur with Garcia in this form. Jabeur needs time to successfully execute her variety and Garcia will do an excellent job rushing the Tunisian and not giving her a chance to play her game.

Jabeur has also tried to hold onto the baseline and be the aggressor in this tournament, but given Garcia's level of power tennis, Jabeur will be forced onto the defensive much more often than she wants.

Finally, Garcia has done a great job of punishing weaker second serves and given Jabeur's recent second-serve struggles, this will be a major problem against the Frenchwoman.

At the very least, Jabeur will need to put many more first serves into play than she did against Tomljanovic.

Pick: Garcia -2.5 games (-112)

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