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Daniil Medvedev vs Nick Kyrgios: Aussie Capable of Testing World Number 1 (September 4)

Daniil Medvedev vs Nick Kyrgios: Aussie Capable of Testing World Number 1 (September 4) article feature image
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Sarah Stier, Jamie Squire/Getty. Pictured: Daniil Medvedev and Nick Kyrgios.

  • World Number 1 Daniil Medvedev will battle Nick Kyrgios on Sunday night at the US Open.
  • Kenny Ducey previews the match and offers his betting analysis.
  • Read on to see why he's backing the Aussie to do some damage.

Medvedev vs. Kyrgios Odds

Medvedev Odds -185
 Kyrgios Odds +150
Over/Under 40.5
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Defending champion Daniil Medvedev will face his toughest test of the US Open thus far when he faces Nick Kyrgios on Arthur Ashe Stadium to wrap up an exciting first week at the US Open.

Considering the head-to-head between two, and their most recent meeting weeks ago, is there value on fading the World No. 1?

Let’s dive into it.

Medvedev Looking to Find Top Gear

The World No. 1 sure doesn’t really look like the World No. 1 at the moment.

Medvedev, a player who had one of the greatest summers in recent history a few years back when he won Cincinnati and made the finals of the US Open, Citi Open and the Rogers Cup, has looked somehwat uninterested in this year’s go around.

The Russian was bounced from the Rogers Cup this year by none other than Kyrgios, then followed that up with three tight wins in Cincinnati before a disappointing loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas, a player he has historically owned.

Yes, Medvedev has looked a bit more interested this week considering he’s defending a Grand Slam title, but that may not be good enough here. The Russian drew a terrible first-round opponent in Stefan Kozlov before struggling a bit in the second set against Arthur Rinderknech and being made to work hard by the rising Yibing Wu.

So, while Medvedev has been winning in straight sets, I don’t necessarily think that is the best indicator of how he will play against Kyrgios.

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Kyrgios Doing Kyrgios Things

We will get to the head-to-head in just a second, but let’s just take a moment to wax poetic about how good Kyrgios looks.

If you’re a casual fan or occasional bettor, you probably know Kyrgios to be one of the most volatile players on tour, making him a nightmare to bet on. That couldn’t be further from the case this season.

Kyrgios has made a concerted effort to be professional about his tennis, putting in some training off the court and putting forth his best effort every time on the court. Sure, there are moments of frustration throughout every one of his matches, but it feels more like Kyrgios is being a perfectionist about his game rather than whining about things that don’t really matter.

The Aussie just ripped through a pretty talented and in-form opponent in JJ Wolf on Friday, and he also dismantled his good friend Thanasi Kokkinakis in the first round. He didn’t produce a good level in his second-round match, but he still managed to come through in four sets against Benjamin Bonzi behind that booming serve.

The Kyrgios serve is, for my money, the best in tennis right now. His forehand looks better than I’ve ever seen it. This guy has the goods to win this tournament.

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Betting Value

Kyrgios owns a 3-1 record against Medvedev. He took him out on the clay in a Masters 1000 before becoming one of the few take out the Russian during the Summer of Med, when he beat him in the Citi Open final in two sets.

He fell to Medvedev in four sets earlier this year at the Australian Open, but Kyrgios entered that match with no fitness and no form to speak of, playing just one match prior to that in four months.

With that being said, Kyrgios worked hard in that match and pushed Medvedev to the brink. He broke back to force a first-set breaker and took the third after dropping the first two sets. He did all the hard work on break point in the opening Medvedev service game in the fourth, and if not for a shanked forehand on a point he had won, that match probably goes five. In that case, we very well could be looking at a clean 4-0 head-to-head.

That loss was a good indicator of the gap between these two, and I’d point to their most recent meeting — last month in Montreal at a Masters 1000 — as the proof. Kyrgios utilized the serve and volley — something he rarely does — to come out on top in three sets.

I think Kyrgios should win this match, but from a betting standpoint the best way to play this is Kyrgios to win two sets. He could easily straight-set Medvedev, and I don’t think he’ll lose in three or four. The World No. 1 is going to have to dig deep to win this.

Pick: Kyrgios To Win Two Sets or More (-120)

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