Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Odds, Pick, Expert Predictions | US Open Preview
Tim Clayton/Getty. Pictured: Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev.
Djokovic vs Medvedev Odds
|Over/Under||39.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time | How to Watch||Sunday, 4 p.m. ET | ESPN|
|Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open, click here.|
Two former US Open champions will meet in this year's final when Novak Djokovic vies for the 24th Grand Slam title of his career against Daniil Medvedev. The three-time US Open champion enters as a deserving favorite, but might the man who knocked him off here in the 2021 final make life difficult?
Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev in the 2023 US Open Final.
Djokovic Surviving Without Thriving
It seems we've made excuses for Novak Djokovic's level all tournament. After all, he did defeat Carlos Alcaraz in the Cincinnati final just a couple of weeks ago in one of the best matches in the last few years. Clearly, at the age of 36, he can still produce the best tennis in the world.
I think we need to have discussion, however, about how he's looked at this tournament. He went down two sets to Laslo Djere, and we blamed it on the fact that the two have known each other for years. He looked flat and beatable at Taylor Fritz, but we blamed that on the muggy conditions. He had to save a break point as he served for the first set against Ben Shelton, and he was broken serving for the match. We said that the raucous New York crowd or the eccentric Shelton may have put him off.
At a certain point, it's a trend. Djokovic has played more sketchy matches than good ones at this tournament, and while his base level is good enough to beat almost anyone in the world, it's a much different story when you're talking about a top-five player and a former Grand Slam champion to boot.
Medvedev Raising His Level in a New Way
On Friday night, Medvedev produced one of the best levels on a tennis court that we have seen in years and certainly the best level we've seen of anyone not named Carlos or Novak. His form at these championships has been reminiscent of how he played when he won the title here in 2021, but unlike his early runs here in Queens he's been mild-mannered and focused throughout his matches.
Against Alex de Minaur, a player who had defeated him in their previous two meetings, he went down a set before locking in and absolutely dismantling the Aussie. Against Andrey Rublev, he trailed 3-0 to start the match before doing the very same. Even in his win over Alcaraz, the Spaniard appeared to turn the tides by taking the third set and producing two break points to take a lead in the fourth and perhaps erase Medvedev's advantage altogether. The Russian did what he does best, serving out of trouble and giving away nothing from the baseline.
So, Medvedev's tennis has been very special at this tournament, but his mental strength has been equally as impressive.
The win over Alcaraz was a big triumph for Medvedev. Not only did he beat the best player in the world, but one of the best drop-shotters and serve-and-volleyers in the game today. Many said he wouldn't ever win against someone with such tools given his comically-deep court positioning, but he proved those doubters wrong.
Djokovic vs Medvedev Pick
Medvedev has a very promising head-to-head against Djokovic having beaten him five times in 14 meetings, including their most recent encounter this season in Dubai. He also won their last meeting at a Grand Slam, which was of course the 2021 US Open final. He should feel as though he's got a real chance to win this one, and he certainly does.
Djokovic has been nowhere near his best at this tournament, while Medvedev is coming off one of the best performances of his career. The World No. 2 shockingly lost more rallies of nine or more shots than Shelton — a mediocre baseliner — on Saturday. He coughed up unforced errors in huge moments, including the third-set tiebreak he eventually won. He's yet to face a player who can successfully capitalize on his mistakes, but he will on Sunday against Medvedev.
This match may be played indoors, which would certainly aid the Djokovic forehand — that looked like a real weapon under the roof on Saturday. With that said, if Medvedev can scramble against the Alcaraz forehand he will be able to get to almost every Djokovic forehand, and we have to consider how much better the serving conditions will be for the big man in an enclosed environment.
I think Medvedev is the guy who has played better all tournament, and he is peaking at the right moment. His forehand has done serious damage on these slower but still fast hard courts. He's shown that he can play aggressively and take points from his opponents and he's also shown he can eventually find a way through the serve and volley and get drop shots back deep into the court.
Djokovic is in serious danger here, and I actually think he would have preferred to play Alcaraz, a player who will go for small margins and cough up some errors when the Serb applies pressure. Medvedev has not felt the pressure once at this tournament, despite being under an enormous amount in several matches, and that should give him the win.