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Rafael Nadal vs. Taylor Fritz Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Prediction (July 6)

Rafael Nadal vs. Taylor Fritz Wimbledon Odds, Preview, Prediction (July 6) article feature image

Julian Finney/Getty. Pictured: Taylor Fritz.

  • American Taylor Fritz is the last hurdle for Rafael Nadal before the Wimbledon semifinals.
  • Nadal is significantly favored to beat Fritz, who pulled off the upset at Indian Wells earlier this year.
  • Does he have a chance to do it again? Kenny Ducey evaluates the match.

Nadal vs. Fritz Odds

Nadal Odds-270
Fritz Odds+215
Total38.5 (-120 / +100)
Time | How to Watch9:45 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Rafael Nadal will finally get his rematch against Taylor Fritz, the man who took him out in the Indian Wells final this year.

A calendar Grand Slam is quickly becoming a real possibility for Nadal, who is just three wins away from taking home the third Slam of the season.

Could the American stand in the Spaniard’s way of the toughest achievement in tennis?

Let’s dive into this one.

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Fritz Confident And Hungry

It didn’t seem possible we’d get to this point a few weeks ago, and it certainly didn’t feel possible way back in 2019.

The fact is, Fritz has transformed himself into a real contender at each of the year’s Grand Slams and has risen out of a miniature slump to get into his first Wimbledon quarterfinal.

Fritz had lost three straight matches before taking home his second career Eastbourne title, and he’s carried that momentum into the All England Club, where he’s yet to drop a set.

He admitted in one of his press conferences that he was carrying a bit of an injury into his loss at Queen’s Club, and that he’s feeling a ton better now about his body and his game.

Fritz is probably at his best level on grass. While his big topspin forehand does more damage on a hardcourt where it can really kick up, his backhand — a shot he’s actually preferred to hit over the last year judging by the numbers — is far more effective on the turf.

The American finds acute angles and can keep the ball lower coming through the court. His serve also plays up more on this surface, which is the reason why he’s been broken just five times through four matches.

Fritz will come into this match with plenty of confidence after beating Nadal in the Indian Wells final this year. While it’s true that the Spaniard was playing through a rib injury, Fritz’s team advised him not to play the match due to how bad of an ankle injury he was dealing with.

Both men were injured there, and both men will be healthy for this encounter at Wimbledon.

Nadal In Odd Position

Well, relatively healthy. We always must remind ourselves, as we watch Nadal win match after match, that he’s essentially playing on one foot out there. He’s had to go to great lengths to manage the pain of his chronically-hurt foot and another flare up always might be right around the corner.

Nadal will be hoping that this match goes like their first meeting did in Acapulco two years ago. Fritz was able to muster up just one break point, and despite the American winning 70% of points behind his first serve and landing them at a 64% clip, he was still broken three times.

For as solid as Nadal has looked in the last two matches, he’s still been terribly weird here at the All England Club.

He dropped the third set against Francisco Cerundolo and Ricardas Berankis, he gave back a break lead in the third set against Lorenzo Sonego and he was broken serving for the match against Botic van de Zandschulp.

Nadal eventually came through those matches convincingly, but it can’t be ignored that he’s had a drop in level and in focus in each of his matches.

Betting Value

Nadal normally picks on the backhand of his right-handed opponents, but that’s not going to really be a fruitful endeavor here against Fritz.

As mentioned above, Fritz is getting a significant edge on his backhand wing, and as one of the best high-ball hitters on tour he will welcome the high-bouncing Nadal forehand with open arms.

I give Fritz a great chance to win this match given the lapses we’ve seen from Nadal, and considering he’s yet to drop a set he’s going to be the fresher of the two on top of feeling healthier than the slightly-hobbled Nadal.

I think — like Jannik Sinner against Novak Djokovic — Fritz can hit through Nadal for a little while and pose real issues. The question will become one of whether or not Fritz can finish off the Spaniard, and it’s one which I’m not entirely sure he can answer.

With that, I’ll grab the spread here, and I’ll sprinkle on the moneyline in a less-confident move.

Pick: Fritz +4.5 Games (-115), Fritz ML +215 (0.5u)

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