Monday US Open Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe (Sept. 7)

US Open: Frances Tiafoe vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds

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Before the tournament began, I picked Daniil Medvedev to come through the bottom half of the draw and a reach the final. He's given me no reason to change my mind.

Although yet to play a top-75 opponent, the Russian has looked impressive, yet to drop a set, perfectly comfortable in his relatively new role as a heavy favorite.

While Medvedev has cruised under the radar, Tiafoe has been a headline. The 22-year old is the last standing American man in the draw. His 5-set win over Australian John Millman was a surprise to most in the tennis world, given Tiafoe's abysmal 1-7 record in 5-setters and Millman's track record as a marathon specialist.

Tiafoe showed a level of grit he had never unleashed before. In the following round, the World No. 82 rolled past Marton Fucsovics in commendable straight sets.

Tiafoe Has Some Stylistic Advantages

As someone who looks for tactical edges, I often find myself betting Medvedev matches. That's because he has an unorthodox style with clear strengths and weaknesses.

Since Medvedev has been on the tour's radar since his magical run last summer, there are no more secrets. The Russian is never beaten for pace, depth, consistency or shot tolerance. His countryman Andrey Rublev, who lost to Medvedev at last year's US Open, actually summed it up quite well.

So if rhythmic baseline aggression is not the way to beat Medvedev, what is? One of his main technical shortcomings is his low racket speed, which makes it difficult for him to generate his own pace. Players have responded by increasing backhand slice frequency against Medvedev.

Not only does the chip stay low and slow, like a proper smoked brisket, but it also forces Medvedev to move forward, when he'd rather hang behind the baseline in good defensive position.

The backhand slice is a shot that, at best, draws errors from Medvedev, and at worst, keeps the sensational Medvedev backhand at bay. It's a shot that Tiafoe has a great feel for. A check in the box for the American.

Another weakness for Medvedev is his passing shots. The Russian's passive court position gives opponents more time to close the net, and more time to react to the pass.

Medvedev's flat hitting also reduces the sharpness of his crosscourt angle passing shot, and makes it harder for him to dip balls below the level of the net where volleying is more difficult. Of course, few players in modern men's tennis are equipped with the net skills to fully take advantage of Medvedev's exploitable passing shots. It's another check in the box for Tiafoe, who has a buttery touch at the net.

Medvedev vs. Tiafoe Betting Pick

What Tiafoe brings to the table is disruption and craftsmanship. He is firmly outmatched in the blocking and tackling of baseline tennis, but he has the ability to hit Medvedev in his weak points.

I like Tiafoe to take a set in this matchup, which should put him well on his way to covering a 6.5-game spread, at close to even money.

The Bet: Francis Tiafoe +6.5 -103

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