2021 Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Wednesday’s Day 3 Matches, Including Karatsev vs. Chardy (June 30)
Tony O’Brien/Getty Images. Pictured: Aslan Karatsev
We’re getting into the third day at Wimbledon, and rain has continued to push matches back, creating jam-packed cards for us to bet. While it’s pretty terrible for the players, it’s awesome for us, the fans.
So many matches means so many ways to make money, and I think I’ve picked out three winners below. I’ve also got two bets pending from Tuesday, so definitely get in on those if you can.
Just a note — these matches don’t have an approximate start time, given there are so many matches to finish, so check the order of play if you want to wait to lock these in. Matches will begin at 6 a.m. ET.
Aljaz Bedene vs. Corentin Moutet
Here’s the thing about Bedene — his matches couldn’t be uglier, or harder to watch, yet in the end he comes out victorious more times than not. He is the opposite of Moutet, whose matches are fun to watch with sublime shot-making, however, he’s more of a human highlight (and blooper) reel. More times than not, he’s unable to overcome adversity and grind out a win.
The Frenchman has really had a so-so season filled with ups and downs, and a 2-2 grass court record is the perfect summation of how things have gone. He’s had some great wins, like one over his friend Denis Shapovalov on clay and David Goffin on the aforementioned grass, but he’s also had his share of bad losses.
This isn’t exactly a surface that suits Moutet, who likes to shape his shots and play with a lot of feel. He’s more gifted on clay, and his career record on hardcourts and grass courts — which sits right around .500 — tell that story.
Bedene, on the other hand, is a perfect all-surface player. He has one of the best serves on tour, ranking 18th in success rate behind his first serve, and he should be able to collect a boatload of free points in his service games. He’s a guy who is able to construct points beautifully and should tire Moutet out in the end here. It may go long, but I expect this big serve to win out and be dependable all day long for Bedene.
Pick: Bedene -125 (at William Hill)
James Duckworth vs. Radu Albot
Much like Albot, Duckworth went on an absolute tear in 2019, ascending up the ATP rankings and getting himself in position to play in the Grand Slams the last two years. Unlike Albot, though, the 29-year-old Duckworth’s rolled over much worse competition and is unreliable at Grand Slams, having won just six matches in his 15-year competitive tennis career.
Both of these guys have been disappointing since those great campaigns, but the difference here is that Albot always brings his best to the Grand Slams. He’s advanced past the first round in four of his five appearances at Wimbledon, and has a game that can play on grass. His returns and rally consistency should overwhelm Duckworth, who relies on his serve and short points.
I’ve long been the leader in the “Albot is good” camp, and I do think he’s due for a miniature run here, where he always seems to play well. This guy competes so hard every time he takes the court, and that’s just not a quality I’ve seen Duckworth display.
Pick: Albot +142 (at FanDuel)
Aslan Karatsev vs. Jérémy Chardy
I desperately wanted to fade Karatsev after his miserable two matches on grass (which were his first since 2015), but I can’t bring myself to do it at this price.
If Wimbledon were held something like three months ago, I’d be on Chardy here. He was playing some exceptional tennis early in the season, but he’s now lost six out of seven and both of his attempts at a grass-court warmup this spring. I’m also just not sold that his big serve will be there for him against perhaps the best returner in the game right now aside from Novak Djokovic.
Karatsev might not be destined for a big run here, but I don’t think this will be where he falls. He can be a good grass-court player with his stunning power and precision off his forehand and backhand wings, he just needs to work his way into form on the surface. His Achilles’ heel has been some pretty uninspired service games, but a returner as weak as Chardy shouldn’t give him many issues here.
The Russian’s talent is very real, and I think you can back him here with confidence. He’s been a cash cow this season.
Pick: Karatsev -155 (at BetMGM)