ATP Wimbledon Final Betting Odds, Preview: Federer Seeks Slam No. 21 Against Djokovic

Credit:

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured; Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer

Men’s Wimbledon Final Odds: Djokovic vs. Federer

  • Moneyline: Djokovic -185, Federer +165
  • Over/Under: 41.5 Games
  • Where: Centre Court, London
  • When: Sunday, 9 a.m. ET on ESPN

Roger Federer will look to extend two men’s tennis records on Sunday with his ninth Wimbledon title and 21st career Grand Slam championship. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic will try to close that major gap to just four with his 16th major and fifth overall at the All England Club.

Djokovic is 4-1 in his five career Wimbledon finals, while Federer is 8-3 all-time. However, two of Fed’s three losses came against Djokovic in back-to-back finals in 2014 and 2015.

The History

The two have met 47 times, with Djokovic holding a 25-22 head-to-head lead. Novak also has the edge in recent years, winning eight of their last 10 clashes.

When it comes to Slams, Djokovic holds the advantage there as well with a 9-6 record. The Serb has also won all four of their matches at majors since 2012.

While Djokovic has won their past two meetings at Wimbledon — both in finals with four of the nine sets going to a tiebreaker, Federer did win their only other meeting here in the 2012 semis.

If Federer wants to even the Wimbledon score, he’ll have to do something he’s never done throughout his illustrious career: beat Rafael Nadal and Djokovic at the same Slam.

The Pick

I’ve written in the past about Djokovic’s keen ability to rise to the occasion and up his level in championship matches.

The Serb boasts a 9-2 record over his last 11 Grand Slam finals — with the only two losses coming at the hands of Stan Wawrinka. That includes a perfect 3-0 record here at Wimbledon, two of which came against the maestro himself, Federer. In fact, Djokovic is 3-0 in major finals against Federer over that span.

I expect Novak to add a fifth-straight on Sunday

Personally, I’m not looking at any specific set combinations. If I had to guess, Novak to get this done in four, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Novak win this in three or five, so I’ll pass on taking a stab at the duration.

I like Djokovic for a few reasons. So much of his game depends on his mental state. When he’s motivated and locked in, he plays a suffocating brand of tennis.

He’s also shown in the past that his A game beats Roger’s A game. After playing second fiddle in the semifinals thanks to the sheer magnitude of a Roger/Rafa clash, I think Novak will have just a tad more motivation to remind everyone that he’s the top-ranked player in the World.

While Roger imposed his offensive game in the semifinals, I think Nadal’s tactics hurt him. The Spaniard played  so deep in the court —  five feet behind the baseline — which allowed Federer to control most of the points.

But Djokovic will be a rude awakening for Roger. He’ll hug the baseline, taking the ball on earlier than Roger, forcing the Roger to play defense. Unlike Rafa, Novak should control most of the points.

Djokovic will also put a lot of pressure on Roger’s serve. Federer won 62% of his second serves against Nadal. Don’t expect him to duplicate that clip against the best returner in tennis.

Novak just has the ability to aggressively attack Fed’s second serves. That will put scoreboard pressure on Roger, which not many can do. Federer will surely be looking to put Novak away with his  1-2 punch (big serve + forehand) but Djokovic can take that away from him more than any other player in the sport.

In the end, Djokovic should be too solid. While I wouldn’t rule out Roger keeping this close — I think Djokovic will raise his level on the big points, as he always does, to find a way to pull out his 16th Grand Slam. He’s played stellar tennis the entire tournament and when it gets to winning time, nobody ups the ante like Djokovic has in recent years

As much as I’d love to see Roger pull off a fairy tale upset, he would have to find a completely different level to finish the job. I’m just not sure it’s there at this point in his career. I got Novak.

At -185, you’re getting what you pay for. Djokovic has a bit of value to me and is also a worthy parlay piece for you baseball bettors.

The Pick: Novak Djokovic

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